Market participants along the battery supply chain had already anticipated a weak battery market for the fourth quarter of 2023. In September, market participants generally expressed that they did not expect to witness a “golden September, silvery October” in the upstream lithium market, which would have signaled an uptick in the fourth quarter demand if it had happened.

“The battery market is weak this year, therefore battery makers suspended production during China’s Golden Week holiday, which in turn contributed to the drop in the battery’s monthly output,” a Chinese battery producer source said, adding that Chinese battery makers were running production at full capacity during the Golden Week holiday in 2022 due to booming demand.

The sustained battery production in 2022 led to a 6.26% monthly growth in China’s power battery output in October of that year to 62.8 GWh from 59.1 GWh in the previous month, according to CABIA.

In addition, batteries were overstocked among certain battery makers, who were reportedly trying to destock under inventory pressure. The large inventories of batteries also curbed any need to further ramp up production in the typically strongest season of the year, sources told Fastmarkets.

“This year, the September is no longer ‘golden’ and October no longer ‘silvery’. Battery makers lowered production in October and were not making great efforts to reach higher output in final quarter [of the year],” a Chinese battery materials trader said. “We haven’t witnessed anything which would have boosted the demand for batteries or battery materials, and this weakness could persist into the first quarter of 2024.”

The same bearish sentiment was echoed among multiple other market participants, who expected that China’s monthly battery output would continue the downtrend in the remainder of the year.

The waning production of batteries and bearish sentiment in the upstream lithium market resulted in muted spot demand for lithium and led to a lithium price downtrend in recent months.

While market participants similarly expected that the softness of lithium demand and prices could easily persist into the first quarter of 2024, some others put on hopes for a short period of price stability ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in 2024 from February 10-17,  when the market becomes quiet and domestic transport comes to a halt.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 141,000-150,000 yuan ($19,449-20,690) per tonne on Thursday November 16, down by 5,000-8,000 yuan per tonne from 149,000-155,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 130,000-145,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday down by 5,000-10,000 yuan per tonne from 140,000-150,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier. 

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post China’s October battery output falls 0.1% vs September amid market weakness appeared first on Fastmarkets.

China reports limited lithium spot transactions

Market participants in China’s domestic market continued to observe limited spot transactions of lithium salts. Consumers relied largely on long-term supplies, especially with battery makers sitting on large inventories of batteries, which prompted low demand for any upstream raw materials.

“Demand for lithium carbonate remains very weak. While the market dynamics remains as weak as in the previous weeks, lithium prices continue to fall slightly every day,” a Chinese cathode producer source said.

Most lithium carbonate consumers minimized spot purchases to avoid holding excess inventory in the run-up to year-end, Fastmarkets heard.

In the meantime, market sentiment remained bearish, with market participants widely saying there was little hope that lithium demand could rebound in the short term. They said that the current lithium price downtrend and weak demand could persist at least into the first quarter of 2024.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 141,000-150,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 5,000-8,000 yuan per tonne from 149,000-155,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

The lithium hydroxide market remained even weaker than the carbonate market due to muted demand from the nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery sector.

Some market participants reported that the battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices could be as low as 130,000 yuan per tonne, a level lower than the production costs, especially if the material is produced from spodumene, they said.

“It’s no longer a matter of production costs of lithium hydroxide, but the demand. With no demand, there’s no bottom to the current price downtrend,” a Chinese lithium trader said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 130,000-145,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday down by 5,000-10,000 yuan per tonne from 140,000-150,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ fortnightly price assessment of spodumene min 6% Li2O, spot price, cif China was $1,500-1,800 per tonne on November 9, down by $200-300 per tonne from $1,800-2,000 per tonne two weeks earlier.

East Asia lithium prices track weakness in quiet spot market

Lithium prices in the East Asia market also trended downward in the past week, with market participants reporting limited spot demand and scarce spot transactions, while the ongoing weakness in China’s domestic market filtered into the region.

“The spot lithium market in East Asia is extremely quiet. Some consumers are even negotiating with their suppliers for less volume of lithium hydroxide from their long-term deliveries,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.

“A good amount of consumers’ demand was outnumbered by their long-term hydroxide supplies this year,” they added.

“Some lithium producers have large stocks of lithium hydroxide and are trying to offload material with competitive prices amid current weak demand, which adds further pressure on hydroxide prices,” an East Asian consumer source said.

The carbonate market was even less active than the hydroxide market, which is typically quieter, with market participants saying inquiries for lithium carbonate were rarer than usual.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of the lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $20.00-21.50 per kg on Thursday, narrowing down by $1.00 per kg from $20.00-22.50 per kg a day earlier, and also narrowing down by $1.50 per kg from $20.00-23.00 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ daily assessment of the lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $20-21 per kg on Thursday, unchanged from a day earlier, but down by $1 per kg from $21-22 per kg a week earlier.

Europe, US lithium spot prices follow Asian bearishness

Lithium spot prices in Europe and the United States continued to trend lower across the board affected by weakness from the more liquid Asian markets, sources said.

A market participant active in both Europe and Asia said that he started to see very competitive offers for lithium hydroxide from Chinese sellers in the international market.

A distributor active in Europe said that buyers were bidding lower because they were aware of the international bearish dynamics impacting the lithium market.

“We also saw a year-on-year decline in demand from the construction sector. Due to the price volatility of lithium, they tried to replace it with cheaper alternatives,” the same distributor of lithium technical grade compounds said.

An intermediary said that the traditional premium that the European and US markets hold over the seaborne Asia market is shrinking due to competitive offers and near-term bearish outlook, with freight rates only accounting for a marginal difference in prices.

Fastmarkets last assessed the price of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US at $20.00-22.50 per kg on Thursday, down by 4.49% week on week.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post Global lithium prices extend losses amid ongoing weak demand appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Lithium prices elsewhere also exhibited the same downtrend amid weak global demand.

“It’s still the same picture in China’s domestic market. Sentiment remains bearish, while demand remains limited. Market participants are showing a pessimistic attitude toward lithium demand next year,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.

Downstream consumers were heard to be pushing for bigger discounts on 2024 long-term contracts given the expectation of weak lithium demand for the year, sources told Fastmarkets.

Market participants noted that despite the limited transactions of lithium salts in China’s spot market, spot lithium prices still trended downward almost every day, albeit at a slower pace, due to bearish sentiment.

“Since it’s the end of the year, consumers are primarily destocking their lithium inventories. Spot demand for lithium carbonate is weak,” a second Chinese lithium producer source said.

A Chinese lithium trader added, “The lithium hydroxide market is much more sluggish than the lithium carbonate market. The spot market inventories of hydroxide are large, while the spot demand is almost muted given the weak nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery sector in China.”

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 158,000-165,000 yuan ($21,591-22,547) per tonne on Thursday, down by 2,000-5,000 yuan per tonne by from 160,000-170,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.
 
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 145,000-160,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, widening downward by 5,000 yuan per tonne from 150,000-160,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.
 

East Asian lithium prices maintain downtrend amid weak demand and China’s weakness

Spot lithium prices in the East Asian market also trended downward over the past week following the weakness seen in China’s domestic market, while market participants observed an inactive spot market where spot demand was muted.

An East Asian consumer source told Fastmarkets that they have no demand for any spot lithium salts and acknowledged the downtrend in the spot market, attributing it to weak market fundamentals in East Asia.

“We have enough inventories of lithium hydroxide and haven’t done any spot deals for a while and won’t buy any spot units in the near future. I think the weakness in the lithium market can persist in to the first quarter of 2024,” the East Asian consumer source said.

A third Chinese lithium producer said, “While Chinese lithium prices are still trending downward, it’s natural that the East Asian prices show the same trend.”

A fourth Chinese lithium producer indicated that the demand outlook of lithium salts in the East Asia market is also not optimistic for 2024 amid a gloomy global macroeconomy.

“The negotiations for 2024 long-term contract are going to be tough. The customers want less volume [than this year] of lithium hydroxide but bigger discount [than this year],” the producer said.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $21-23 per kg on Thursday, unchanged since October 27, but down by $1 per kg from $22-24 per kg a week earlier.
 
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $21.00-23.00 per kg on Thursday, unchanged since October 27, but down by $0.50-1.00 per kg from $21.50-24.00 per kg a week earlier.

Europe, US spot lithium prices continue downtrend on lingering weak demand, bearish sentiment

Spot lithium prices in Europe and the United States continued to move lower across the board over the past week, with sources citing a spot demand that struggles to pick up and bearish sentiment for the near term stemming from ongoing weakness in Asian markets.

Fastmarkets latest price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US was $21.50-24.00 per kg on Thursday, down by $0.50-1.00 per kg from $22.00-25.00 per kg.
 
Similarly, Fastmarkets latest price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US at $21.50-24.00 per kg on Thursday, down by $0.50-1.00 per kg from $22.00-25.00 per kg.
 
The price parity reached between lithium carbonate and hydroxide battery grade compounds in the Europe and the United States regions mirrors a pattern observed in the more liquid seaborne Asia market.

The technical grade lithium spot prices in Europe and the United States tracked a similar bearish sentiment. However, lithium hydroxide technical grade maintained a marginal premium on the lithium carbonate technical grade equivalent due to the higher production costs for lithium hydroxide and the smaller market compared with those in Asia that allows for less aggressive offers downward.

“I think international lithium prices between carbonate and hydroxide still maintain parity despite the hefty discount that we are seeing in lithium hydroxide in domestic China where the level of inventories remains high,” a converter active in Europe and Asia said.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post Global lithium prices continue to tumble on sluggish demand appeared first on Fastmarkets.

This more frequent price assessment will enable Fastmarkets to reflect spot market dynamics in a more timely manner, particularly while spodumene pricing becomes more closely connected to lithium chemicals prices.

The proposed new specifications are listed below, with the proposed amendment of price frequency in italics:

MB-LI-0012 Spodumene min 6% Li2O, spot price, cif China, $/tonne
Quality: A mineral concentrate accepted by buyers for conversion in lithium chemicals used in battery applications (any size will be accepted) and with the following chemical composition: Li2O 6% (min 5.7 Li2O and max 6.1% Li2O accepted if it can be normalized to 6%); Fe2O3 < 1.3% (max 1.5% Fe2O3 accepted if it can be normalized to < 1.3%), H2O <10%
Quantity: 1,000 tonnes
Location: cif China
Timing: 90 days
Unit: USD/tonne
Publication: twice a week, Wednesday and Friday, 3-4pm London time

This price is a part of the Fastmarkets industrial minerals package.

The consultation period for the above proposal will start on Friday, November 3 and end one month from the date of this pricing notice, on Friday December 1, with the amended frequency, subject to feedback, taking effect from Wednesday, December 6.

All historical data relating to the assessment prior to the amendment will remain available in the pricing section of the Fastmarkets website.

To provide feedback on the spodumene price assessment amendement, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter, please contact Callum Perry and Zihao Li by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading FAO: Callum Perry/Zihao Li re: spodumene price assessment. Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, please go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Proposal to amend frequency of spodumene spot price assessment appeared first on Fastmarkets.

• Chinese lithium carbonate prices down amid bearish sentiment, thin demand; hydroxide prices flat
• East Asian lithium prices down on weak demand and consumer caution
• European, US lithium prices down, following Asian downtrend

Fastmarkets observed a limited number of spot activity over the recent week in China’s domestic market, with the majority of Chinese market participants attending an industry conference.
Spot lithium carbonate prices in China edged lower, ending the strength seen in the recent fortnight amid ongoing widespread bearish sentiment.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 160,000-170,000 yuan ($21,870-23,237) per tonne on Thursday, down by 5,000-6,000 yuan per tonne from 165,000-176,000yuan per tonne a week earlier.

Market participants widely expressed at the industry conference that the demand for lithium salts remained thin and there was little hope for any noticeable demand recovery in the near future.

“I am not expecting an uptick in lithium demand or prices toward the end of this year, because there has been no sign of any increasing procurement even…. The market could remain weak going into the first quarter [of 2024],” a Chinese cathode producer source said.

Talks that some lithium miners may have agreed to delay their quotation period (QP) for long-term spodumene contracts started spreading in the end of the prior week, which intensified the bearish sentiment, sources told Fastmarkets.

The lithium carbonate futures contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange also fell on for two consecutive days starting on Thursday October 19, which market participants attributed to the spodumene QP talks.

The most-traded January 2024 lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) closed at 151,950 yuan per tonne on Friday October 20, down by 12,800 yuan per tonne from opening at 164,750 yuan per tonne on Thursday.

The futures market weakness also contributed to the lower lithium carbonate prices over the week to Thursday, sources said.

The lithium hydroxide market remained weaker than the lithium carbonate market, with barely any demand for spot units since most consumers relied only on long-term orders or supply provided from their end customers, sources told Fastmarkets.

“There’s basically no demand for spot lithium hydroxide due to the sluggish nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery sector in China. With no demand, it’s hard to strike any deals regardless of how competitive the prices are,” a Chinese lithium trader said.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 150,000-160,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, unchanged from a week earlier.

East Asian market continues weakness

East Asian lithium hydroxide prices remained under downward pressure over the week ended Thursday amid sustained weakness in consumer demand, while spot market activities were also limited due to Chinese market participants attending an industry conference.

“Spot demand for lithium is limited. Following the volatility of China’s lithium prices after the country’s Golden Week holiday, the limited numbers of consumers who have spot demand have become even more cautious,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.

“Lithium hydroxide prices in East Asia are retreating from last week’s level because China’s lithium prices now start to fall again,” a second Chinese lithium producer source said.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $21.50-24.00 per kg on Thursday, unchanged from a day earlier, but down by $0.50-1.00 per kg from $22.00-25.00 per kg a week earlier.

While spot liquidity for both hydroxide and carbonate remained limited over the past week, the carbonate prices in East Asia were flat over the past week.

“The carbonate prices in East Asia are very close to the prices in China’s domestic market. So I think it will have limited room to edge even lower for the time being,” the second Chinese lithium producer source said.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $22.00-24.00 per kg on Thursday, unchanged since October 16.

Europe, US lithium spot prices edge lower on weakness in Asian prices, faltering demand

Spot lithium prices in Europe and the United States continued to edge lower over the past week narrowing their gap to the East Asia equivalent spot lithium prices with consumers’ demand continuing to falter and inventory levels remaining high, sources said.

A seller active in Europe and in Asia commented that demand from both battery value chain and industrial applications is weak at the moment and there is a feeling that stock levels remain elevated across the value chain.

“We have not seen major enquiries or concluded major sales of lithium salts, since demand is still very poor. For the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, we have heard expectations of lithium prices remaining weak. But there could be potential improvements on the demand for the second quarter of next year,” the seller said.

A second seller commented that the differential between Europe, US DDP prices and CIF East Asia lithium spot prices narrowed significantly due to poor demand outlook and a number of sellers trying to aggressively offload material wherever it can be sold.

Fastmarkets’ latest price assessment of lithium carbonate 99% Li2CO3 min, technical and industrial grades, spot price ddp Europe and US was $20-23 per kg on Thursday October 26, widening downward by $1 per kg from $21-23 per kg a week earlier.

A similar downward trend was seen across other lithium grades.

Fastmarkets’ latest price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US was $22-25 per kg on Thursday, widening downward by $1 per kg from $23-25 per kg a week earlier.

The price reached parity with the spot lithium hydroxide price for battery grade in the Europe and US regions in a similar trend seen in East Asia with minimal differential observed with the two battery grade prices.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post Chinese lithium carbonate prices start new downtrend appeared first on Fastmarkets.

EV production and sales spike 

China produced 879,000 units of EVs in September, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. The total production of EVs in September included 589,000 units of pure electric vehicles (PEVs), up by 1.5% year on year, while the output of plug-in hybrids was 290,000 tonnes, up by 64.1% from the corresponding month of 2022.

Total sales of EVs reached 904,000 units in September. PEV sales increased by 16.2% year on year to 627,000 units, and plug-in hybrid sales spiked by 64.4% from a year earlier to 277,000 units.

From January-September 2023, a total of 6.31 million units of EVs were produced, up by 33.7% on a yearly basis, while total sales increased by 37.5% to 6.28 million units over the same period.

Meanwhile, from January to September, production of PEVs totaled 4.46 million units, up by 21.1% compared with the year prior, while output for plug-in hybrids rose by 78.9% on a yearly basis to 1.85 million units. Within the same period, sales of PEVs reached 4.47 million units, up by 24.9% and plug-in hybrids increased by 83% to 1.81 million units.

The robust EV output and sales growth could be attributed to a series of consumption stimulus plans issued by China’s national and local governments, which included subsidies and consumption coupons, according to CAAM.

Battery raw materials markets mixed

Despite the overall growth in the downstream EV sector, upstream raw materials including lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite are facing ongoing headwinds due to slow demand, while supply constraints for cobalt and nickel sulfate provided price support in the recent month, sources said.

China’s lithium prices have been mostly on a downtrend in the recent month due to headwinds from ongoing weak demand from battery producers amid market oversupply and a lack of confidence of a near-term demand recovery.

Downstream battery producers in China have reduced procurement rates of lithium amid sufficient inventories on hand and lower demand due to reduced production rates resulting from weak battery demand, sources told Fastmarkets.

China’s power batteries output totalled approximately 69.9 gigawatt hours (GWh) in September, but only 36.4 GWh of power batteries ended up being installed during the month, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance.

“Spot demand for lithium carbonate is very thin. Cathode producers are keeping their lithium salts inventories at a very low level amid expectation of ongoing price downtrends and limited orders from battery makers. Consumers, meanwhile, are only purchasing lithium salts on a hand-to-mouth basis,” a Chinese lithium trader said.

While market participants did not widely expect demand to surge in September and October given the ongoing weakness in the lithium market, some market participants still hoped that there would be a small round of restocking after China’s Golden Week holiday.

“We haven’t seen any restocking after the holiday and demand for lithium remains at its pre-holiday level,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.

China’s lithium prices rebounded in the recent week, supported by strength in the futures market. But market participants maintained a cautious attitude toward the sustainability of the rebound, citing a lack significant improvement in lithium demand.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 163,000-170,000 yuan ($22,352-23,312) per tonne on October 12, narrowing upward by 3,000 yuan per tonne from 160,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on the previous assessment on September 28.

The latest assessment was 32,000-35,000 yuan per tonne lower from 195,000-205,000 yuan per tonne on September 7.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 148,000-160,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday October 12, down by 2,000-10,000 yuan per tonne from 150,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on the previous assessment on September 28.

The latest assessment was 32,000-40,000 yuan per tonne lower from 180,000-200,000 yuan per tonne on September 7.

Prices for cobalt sulfate, another key battery raw material, increased slightly September due to a lack of availability cheaper materials, while producers pushed up offers to test market tolerance, sources said.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for cobalt sulfate, 20.5% Co basis, exw China was 38,000-39,000 yuan per tonne on October 13, unchanged from October 11, but down by 3,000 yuan per tonne from 35,000-36,000 yuan per tonne from September 1.

“Most cobalt sulfate producers have started to push up prices since September because the cheaper spot raw material, cobalt hydroxide, is hard to find. Meanwhile, continually rising cobalt tetroxide prices brought some support to cobalt sulfate,” a cobalt sulfate producer source said.

The producer added, “But demand from the downstream nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) sector hasn’t picked up significantly, so I am still holding watchful attitude to see how higher the cobalt sulfate prices could be.”

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of cobalt hydroxide 30% Co min, cif China was $8.00-8.30 per lb on Friday October 13, up from $7.80-8.00 per lb on October 12. The price was up from 7.30-7.60 per lb on September 1.

China’s nickel sulfate prices traded in a narrow range through September due to an absence of strong upward drivers. Demand from downstream chemistries remained bleak, leading producers to reduce production, which eventually tightened supply.

Meanwhile, supply constraints stemming from lack of feedstock has underpinned sulfate prices despite weak demand.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of nickel sulfate min 21%, max 22.5%; cobalt 10ppm max, exw China was 31,000-32,000 yuan per tonne on October 13, flat since September 29. The price spiked by 4.10% to 31,500-32,000 yuan per tonne on September 22, though soon retreated by 0.79% in the following week.

Liquidity and buying sentiment remained thin, however, sources said.

“Under current market conditions, where market shares in high-nickel ternary chemistries are decreasing in China, prices remaining stable is already good news,” an industry source said, citing falling nickel futures prices.

The benchmark nickel price on the London Metal Exchange closed at $18,672.5 per tonne on October 13, and has been hovering around this level since late September, down notably from $20,675 per tonne on September 1.

In the market for manganese sulfate, another raw material in cathode production, market participants lamented the oversupply resulting from rapid capacity expansion in the recent year, which has added pressure to the current market.

Fastmarkets’ latest weekly price assessment for manganese sulfate 32% Mn min, battery grade, exw mainland China was 5,000-5,650 yuan per tonne on October 12, unchanged since September 14.

The market for major anode raw materials painted a similar picture of weakness.

Prices for green petroleum coke, a feedstock for synthetic anode materials, have been on a downward trend since the start of September, falling by 17.88% in the space of one and a half months.

Fastmarkets’ latest weekly assessment for green petroleum coke 0.5% S, ex-works China was 2,600-3,600 yuan per tonne on October 11, down by 3.13% from the previous session.

Meanwhile, the price for petroleum needle coke, the major feedstock for high-end anodes, moved up slightly at the end of September due to high costs and limited profit margins with sellers trying to hold price firm, sources said.

Fastmarkets’ latest weekly price assessment of petroleum needle coke 0.5% S, ex-works China 4,800-5,000 yuan per tonne on October 11, widening upward by 100 yuan from the previous assessment.

“Despite the current stability in prices of needle coke, the market is still under pressure due to competition from the falling green petroleum coke price, the potential substitute for petroleum needle coke in certain anode production,” a needle coke producer said.

The producer added, “In addition, the downstream application [of needle coke] is limited to graphite electrodes and high-end synthetic anodes, a [more limited utilization] compared with green petroleum coke.”

The price for graphite flake has remained weak, staying on a slight downward trend in September after plunging by 30.36% in the first eight months of the year.

Fastmarkets’ latest price assessment for graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China was $530-604 per tonne on October 12, falling slightly by 0.18% from the previous assessment.

“While there has been no obvious recovery in the downstream market, even with a slight price downward trend in anode precursors, prices for flake fines could be supported to some extent by an expected winter shutdown in Heilongjiang province, a major production hub for flake graphite,” a flake graphite trader said.

Production of flake graphite in the north of China is expected to be suspended due to the extremely cold weather from the end of November to April of next year.

The price of uncoated spherical graphite, which uses flake fines for feedstock, has been holding stable since the start of June when they hit a 11-year low.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China was $2,000-2,200 per tonne on October 12, unchanged since June 1.

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

The post China’s September EV market soars on government subsidies; BRM mixed appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The most traded January 2024 lithium carbonate contract on GFEX surged to close at 164,950 yuan ($22,596) per tonne on Thursday from the day’s opening at 157,100 yuan per tonne.

This lithium carbonate contract price has been on a steady uptrend after China’s Golden Week holiday from September 29 to October 6. The contract opened at 150,000 yuan per tonne and closed at 151,900 yuan per tonne on Monday October 9, the first trading day after the holiday.

Offers for lithium carbonate rose on Thursday following the strong futures performance on the same day, Fastmarkets learned, while prior to Thursday, market participants noted a stable market.

“Before Thursday, the prices for lithium carbonate were very stable, not much different from the week before China’s golden week holiday, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices around 165,000 yuan per tonne,” a Chinese lithium trader said. “But just today, following the futures strength, the offer prices for battery grade lithium carbonate jumped to 180,000 yuan per tonne, although no trades have been concluded at this level.”

In addition to strength in the futures market, market participants also noted that prior to Thursday, lithium sellers in China already stopped further lowering offer prices, keeping the lithium prices steady and ending the downtrend prior to the holiday.

“Lithium carbonate sellers are not willing to further lower prices because they expect that there could be a round of restocking in the fourth quarter, which typically has the strongest demand of the year,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.

However, spot market fundamentals remained weak, with consumers continuing to purchase only on a hand-to-mouth basis.

“Downstream cathode producers are still keeping their lithium carbonate inventories at a low level, enough for only around three days of production. They only purchase on an as-needed basis with only small volumes each time,” a second Chinese lithium producer source said.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 163,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, narrowing upward by 3,000 yuan per tonne from 160,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on the previous assessment on September 28.

The latest assessment was 147,000-1550,000 yuan per tonne lower from 310,000-325,000 yuan per tonne on June 15 when the overall price downtrend started.

Lithium hydroxide market participants continued to note muted demand for the material given a sluggish nickel–cobalt–manganese (NCM) battery sector in China, which weighed down on China’s lithium hydroxide prices.

“There is almost no demand for lithium hydroxide from the consumer side. While the downstream NCM battery sector remains sluggish, even traders are not active with speculative activity in the hydroxide market,” the second Chinese lithium producer source said. “Without demand, there will be no buyers, regardless of how low the lithium hydroxide prices are.”

Fastmarkets’ price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 148,000-160,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 2,000-10,000 yuan per tonne from 150,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on the previous assessment on September 28.

East Asian spot prices extend loss on weak demand and previous weakness in China

Spot lithium prices in East Asia continued to fall in the week to Thursday, with sources citing downward pressure from ongoing weak demand and the weakness in the China’s domestic market.

“The market is looking very bearish. A lot of the East Asian consumers want to destock their lithium inventories in the fourth quarter,” an Asia-based lithium trader said.

The second Chinese lithium producer source told Fastmarkets that the lithium hydroxide demand in east Asia was also weak, with the consumers in the region sitting on large supplies of nickel-rich NCM batteries.

“East Asian consumers have long-term supplies which are more than enough to meet actual demand,” a third Chinese lithium producer source said.

In response, multiple Chinese lithium producers acknowledged it was difficult to make spot deals in the current market climate, with buyers wanting prices fully equal to those in China’s domestic market.

“Many lithium hydroxide sellers have large stocks, so they have to compete with each other and offer more competitive prices to attract buyers,” an East Asian consumer source said.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $23-25 per kg on Thursday, unchanged from a day earlier, but narrowing down by $1 per kg from $23-26 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $23.00-24.50 per kg on Thursday, unchanged from a day earlier, but narrowing down by $1.50 per kg from $23.00-26.00 per kg a week earlier.

Europe, US lithium spot prices continue downtrend amid subdued spot demand

Spot prices for lithium in Europe and the United States continued to post losses over the week to Thursday, with weak demand from end consumers continuing to weigh on offer prices, sources said.

Following the holiday period in China sources kept a watchful attitude for any sign of demand recovery in the European and North American regions, but spot demand has remained week so far and prices continued to drop.

“Realistically if you want to conclude a spot transaction at this very moment, a price in the low $20s has to be negotiated,” a European distributor said.

A second market participant active internationally indicated that there is still some weakness in other markets that has yet to filter through to Europe and the US regions following previous decreases in the domestic Chinese market and that buyers in Europe continue to mostly rely on their long-term contracts.

“I expect that during the fourth quarter there will be a new round of restocking,” the market participant said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US was $21-23 per kg on Thursday, down by $3-4 per kg from $24-27 per kg a week earlier.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post China’s lithium carbonate price rebounds amid futures strength appeared first on Fastmarkets.

• Chinese lithium prices fall on weak demand and drop in futures
• East Asian lithium prices track Chinese downtrend amid slow demand
• Europe, US lithium spot prices decrease; gap with cheaper Asian spot prices narrows

Chinese lithium market remains under pressure

A Chinese lithium producer told Fastmarkets that the spot market was inactive in the past week because of the approaching holiday. “During the holiday, domestic logistics will be halted. Spot deals were very scarce,” they said.

A Chinese lithium trader said: “The market is quiet this week and there hasn’t been much restocking ahead of the holiday. Let’s see how the market will look like following the holiday.”

The fall in the futures market also added pressure to the weakness in spot prices, according to sources.

The most-traded January 2024 lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 150,000 yuan ($20,526) per tonne on Thursday, down by 9,950 yuan per tonne from a closing price of 159,950 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

Market participants attributed the drop in futures prices to the continued weakness in demand for lithium salts from the battery sector, as well as persistently bearish sentiment.

“The gap between the futures prices and the spot prices further adds to the consumer caution,” a second Chinese lithium trader said.

In this scenario, Chinese lithium producer Zhicun Lithium plans to put their facility on care and maintenance between September 29 and October 25 and expects an output loss of 3,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, the company said in a notice seen by Fastmarkets.

But market participants downplayed the impact of Zhicun Lithium’s production suspension, since consumer demand remained weak in an overall oversupplied market.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 160,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 5,000 yuan per tonne on both ends from 165,000-175,000 yuan per tonne on September 21.

And the assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 150,000-170,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 10,000 yuan per tonne on both ends from 160,000-180,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

East Asia prices mirrors Chinese downtrend amid weak demand

Spot lithium prices in East Asia remained on a downtrend in the past week, with sources citing the pressure from weak consumer appetite and the ongoing decrease in China’s lithium prices.

Due to weak demand for hydroxide and large inventories, multiple lithium producers were reportedly offering bigger discounts to their long-term customers to boost lithium hydroxide sales, sources told Fastmarkets.

“Some lithium producers have large inventories of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and they are very active in making concessions and lowering spot offer prices to strike deals with us,” an East Asian consumer source said.

But an international trader said: “Some Western lithium producers would [go] higher with their lithium hydroxide offers… they don’t want to match the lithium hydroxide prices in China’s domestic market.”

“Even though some sellers may insist on high lithium hydroxide prices at $28-30 per kg, for example, due to high production costs or other reasons, I don’t think buyers can accept those levels, given the big premium those prices have over the equivalent prices in the Chinese domestic market,” a second Chinese lithium producer said.

Fastmarkets’ daily assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $23-26 per kg on Thursday, narrowing down by $2 per kg from $23-28 per kg a day earlier, and down by $2-3 per kg from $25-29 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ daily assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $23-26 per kg on Thursday, widening down by $1 per kg on the bottom end from $24-26 per kg a day earlier.

Europe, US lithium spot prices fall narrowing gap with cheaper Asian spot prices

Lithium spot prices in Europe and the United States continued to decline across the board amid weak spot demand, narrowing the premium they hold over seaborne Asia equivalent prices, sources said.

Fastmarkets last assessed the price of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US at $25-27 per kg on Thursday, down by 1.89% week on week.

The assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US was $25-29 per kg on the same day, down 1.82% from the week prior.

“My impression is that buyers in Europe are either well stocked or relying mostly on their long-term agreements. They do not need to enter the spot market at the moment,” a distributor active in Europe and Asia said.

The same source added that despite the weakness in lithium hydroxide prices in Asia, it was still possible to command a marginal premium over lithium carbonate salts in Europe and the US because the price of lithium hydroxide in those regions is traditionally higher.

“It will be very quiet during the Chinese holiday period in Europe… although some international sellers could try to take advantage of the quietness from domestic Chinese sellers to firm up their offers,” an intermediary active internationally said. “But most buyers will remain in a wait-and-see mode, seeking price direction following the Chinese holiday period,” they added.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post Global lithium prices continue freefall ahead of Chinese holidays appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Sustained pressure on Chinese market

Spot demand for lithium salts in China’s domestic market remained limited over the past week, with consumers continuing to only purchase spot units on a hand-to-mouth basis amid a bearish outlook.

“We haven’t purchased spot lithium carbonate over the past week because our supply is well covered by our long-term agreements. In general, cathode producers dare not stock up while the lithium price downtrend is expected to persist,” a Chinese cathode producer source said.

Multiple sources told Fastmarkets that some of China’s cathode producers were operating on low lithium inventories – just about 2-3 days’ worth of production.

“Cathode producers’ lithium inventories are low and whenever they run out of lithium they just stock up in the spot market, but only in small quantities of several tens of tonnes. This way they can benefit from a rapidly falling market,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.

A second Chinese producer source said: “Amid such weak demand, lithium producers who have locked much of their output under long-term agreements are not that pressured to lower spot prices. But lithium producers who only have a small proportion of their output tied to long-term agreements are under much more pressure and they are more aggressive with the lowering of spot offers.”

Compared with the lithium carbonate market, the lithium hydroxide market was under even greater downward pressure, due to the more sluggish performance of the nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery sector in comparison with the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery sector.

“The NCM battery market is lifeless and there is barely any demand for lithium hydroxide. Therefore, the price for lithium hydroxide is not the matter, because with no demand, no one will buy the material however low the price is,” the second Chinese lithium producer source said.

Although traders are said to be offering battery-grade lithium hydroxide at 165,000 yuan ($22,586) per tonne or even lower, major Chinese lithium producers are still insisting on prices of around 180,000 yuan per tonne. Producer sources told Fastmarkets that the downward room for their prices were limited due to production costs still being high.

The weakness in China’s lithium carbonate futures market was also a major factor that contributed to the decline of lithium prices in the country over the past week, market participants said.

The most-traded January 2024 lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 159,950 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 9,200 yuan per tonne from a closing price of 169,150 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of the lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 165,000-175,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 15,000 yuan per tonne from 180,000-190,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ corresponding weekly price assessment of the lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 160,000-180,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, down by 10,000-20,000 yuan per tonne from 170,000-200,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.

East Asian lithium prices fall further

Spot lithium prices in the wider East Asia region retreated further over the past week in response to the downtrend in China, with sources noting persistently weak spot demand due to consumers expecting prices to continue to fall.

“I’ve never seen a spot market as quiet as now,” a third Chinese lithium producer source said.

A fourth Chinese lithium producer source said: “We received some inquiries for battery-grade lithium hydroxide over the past week, but those were only to test where the prices have fallen to, and consumers expect prices to decrease further. Therefore, we are not issuing offers at the moment, until there is some confirmed buying interest.”

Multiple Chinese lithium producer sources told Fastmarkets that they were unable to further lower their prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide despite the current downward pressure, saying high production costs were already squeezing their margins.

Multiple sources told Fastmarkets that there was even talk of South Korean consumers attempting to sell their lithium carbonate inventories back to the Chinese market.

“If the Korean consumers are selling back their lithium carbonate stock, they will definitely not buy any carbonate no matter how low the prices are,” the fourth Chinese lithium producer source said.

Fastmarkets’ daily assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $24.60-26.00 per kg on Thursday, down by $0.40-1.00 per kg from $25-27 per kg a day earlier, and $1.40-3.00 per kg lower than $26-29 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets daily assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $25-29 per kg on Thursday, widening downward by $1 per kg from $26-29 per kg a day earlier, and down by $1 per kg from $26-30 per kg a week earlier.

Europe, US spot lithium prices continue freefall

Spot prices for lithium in Europe and the US fell across the board over the past week, with sources reporting that typical restocking that takes place at the beginning of the fourth quarter was yet to start while buyers continued to keep a cautious approach amid the downtrend in Asia.

“Buyers only inquire to test what level prices have reached, and I have a feeling they will start to actually buy only when prices will start to move upward again,” a distributor source active in Europe said.

A buyer of battery-grade lithium compounds active in Europe also said that he felt that there was no short-term tightness in the market at the moment and that if extra lithium units were needed outside of long-term commitments, supply was readily available for price negotiations.

Fastmarkets assessed the lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp Europe and US at $25-28 per kg on Thursday, down by $3-4 per kg from $28-32 per kg a week earlier.

Spot prices for technical-grade lithium in Europe and the US were also dragged down by the weak demand and bearish sentiment across the regions.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post China’s lithium prices soften further, dragging down other markets appeared first on Fastmarkets.

“This year, we may not see a Golden September or Silver October in the lithium market due to weak demand. If it were going to happen, there would have already been an uptick in buying activity,” a Chinese lithium producer source told Fastmarkets.

“Lithium demand in China remains weak, and, even now, cathode makers have not begun to restock, opting instead to purchase material on a hand-to-mouth basis,” the lithium producer added.

Thin appetite for lithium salts has been a persistent theme in China’s lithium market so far this year, following the country’s discontinuation of its electric vehicle (EV) subsidy from the beginning of this year and an overall gloomy macro-economic environment. China’s lithium prices have therefore remained mostly on the downtrend so far this year.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 180,000-190,000 yuan ($24,671-26,041) per tonne on Thursday September 14, down by 15,000 yuan per tonne from 195,000-205,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier, and down by 63.37% from 490,000-520,000 yuan per tonne on January 5.

Fastmarkets’ corresponding weekly price assessment of lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 170,000-200,000 yuan per tonne on September 14, widening downward by 10,000 yuan per tonne from 180,000-200,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier, down by 63.37% from 490,000-520,000 yuan per tonne on January 5.

Oversupply amid weak demand

“The entire supply chain, from lithium producers to battery producers, is heavily oversupplied, which limits demand for battery raw materials, including lithium,” a second Chinese lithium producer source said. “This also explains why the market is not expecting a Golden September or Silver October.”

In the first eight months of 2023, China produced a total of 418.8 gigawatt hours (GWh) of power batteries, with only 219.2 GWh of this output was ultimately installed, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance.

“The data means that around half of the batteries produced became [surplus] inventory,” a Chinese cathode producer said.

The September battery output in China is expected to only post limited monthly growth from August, Fastmarkets’ senior analyst for battery raw materials, Vicky Zhao said.

“The annual growth rate of EV sales is forecast be lower compared with last year and lithium prices are falling, both of which contributed to a wait-and-see attitude prevalent in the battery supply chain,” Zhao said.

In upstream cathode markets, sources noted the similar oversupply against weak demand from the battery sector.

“Over the past two years when the EV market was booming, cathode production in China ramped up rapidly. The construction time of a cathode project is on average several month, but construction of a lithium salt project can take several years,” the second lithium producer source said.

Thin orders from battery makers and low margins were persistent headwinds to Chinese cathode makers in recent weeks, resulting in lower production rates compared with the same period last year when they ran at full capacity, sources told Fastmarkets.

Lithium iron phosphate cathode production rates are currently 60-70% of their capacity on average, while the rate for nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) production is even lower at no more than 50%, multiple market participants said.

“With capacity outpacing demand, cathode makers are competing against each other to secure any orders from battery makers,” the second lithium producer source said.

The weak cathode market translated to thin demand for lithium. Therefore, despite multiple lithium producers suspending production, the majority of market participants downplayed the impact of the suspensions would have on the market.

“The lithium market presently has [too much supply and not enough demand],” a Chinese battery materials trader said. “The suspended production won’t have any impact on the market or prevent the prices from falling further.”

Fastmarkets learned that two major lithium producers in China planned to put their facilities on care and maintenance recently, with one citing lower-than-expected order volumes.

In addition, smaller lithium producers feeding on lepidolite in China’s Jiangxi province have already suspended production due to high production costs against low sales prices of lithium and a lack of feedstock.

Bearish market sentiment

Market participants broadly hold bearish attitudes and a lack of confidence in any near-term revival for the lithium market.

“Whether the lithium prices will stop falling ultimately depends on when demand picks up. If demand remains weak, there’s no bottom to the current lithium price downtrend,” a second Chinese cathode producer source said.

A lack pf supportive factors which may bolster the battery and lithium market kept market sentiment bearish, with multiple sources citing that the weakness may persist into the fourth quarter unless polices that can significantly and directly benefit EV consumers are rolled out.

China’s local governments have rolled out multiple policies to support their EV consumption. In Shanghai, for example, trade-in subsidies for EV purchases have been extended until the end of 2023. But these policies have only had a limited impact so far in terms of supporting the lithium and battery demand and market sentiment, Fastmarkets learned.

Weakness in futures prices also added to the bearish sentiment toward lithium, sources said.

The most traded January 2024 lithium carbonate futures contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 154,150 yuan per tonne on Wednesday September 20, 35.48% lower from its opening at 238,900 yuan per tonne on July 21, the first day of its launch.

“The more bearish the market sentiment is, the less buying appetite there will be, with consumers trying to delay purchases on the expectation that prices will remain on the downtrend,” a third Chinese cathode producer source said.

The lithium demand in September and October is an important indicator for the demand performance in lithium and battery markets in the fourth quarter, sources said.

“If lithium demand remains weak in September and October, the demand outlook for the entire fourth quarter won’t be promising. Therefore, it’s very important to monitor the recent lithium demand and price performance,” a third Chinese lithium producer source said.

But Zhao said, “some cathode producers may restock after China’s Mid-Autumn and National Day Holiday [from September 29 to October 6], which could send some support to the lithium market.”

The Chinese battery materials trader still had some hope for the fourth quarter, however, saying “the fourth quarter may not be totally hopeless in terms of demand yet because the battery supply chain is still expected to ramp up production to meet annual targets, which may in turn help stabilize lithium prices.”

Keep up to date with all the lithium price changes and data on our dedicated lithium price page.

The post Golden September, Silver October 2023 unlikely for China’s lithium market? appeared first on Fastmarkets.