February trades for delivered CFR volumes were heard at a 130-135 cents per bushel premium to March CME soybean futures, and maybe as high as 137 and 138 cents per bushel over March CME soybean futures.

March loading sales were heard at 53, 55, 60 and 70 cents per bushel, up from 48 cents per bushel heard paid earlier in the week.

A February-March cargo was meanwhile heard traded at a 97-100 cents per bushel premium, up from 75 cents per bushel a day or two ago.

CME soybean futures, against which most physical cargo sales are priced, have fallen sharply in the last few days on wet weather in Brazil, which is expected to bring some relief to the soybean crop after recent hot, dry weather, as well as favorable weather in Argentina.

“Wide and choppy trading ranges were seen for the US soybean complex today, mainly on positioning ahead of the weekend after grinding sharply lower during the morning because of improving Brazilian weather forecasts,” Terry Reilly, Senior Agricultural Strategist at Marex said in his evening report Thursday.

“Soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil all ended lower.”

Brazilian farmer sales slower due to crop concerns

A Brazilian analyst meanwhile said slow farmer selling may have contributed to the higher premiums.

“I think it is also because of a lack of farmer selling and concern about the crop failure up north,” Eduardo Vanin, lead soybean analyst at Brazilian brokerage Agrinvest told Agricensus.

“Besides that, Brazilian soybeans for February and March seem too cheap compared to the US.”

The move has also affected FOB premiums in the Brazilian Paranagua paper market, with a surge in the new crop levels.

Premiums for February shipment surged 30 cents per bushel to a 25 cents per bushel discount to March CME futures Thursday, while March followed the same path rising 28 cents per bushel to a 52 cents per bushel discount.

Trades were also heard for March loading at a 60 cents per bushel and 55 cents per bushel discount to futures, with unconfirmed rumors of further trades at a 50 cents per bushel and 45 cents per bushel discount to March futures.

Market sources said the sharp fall in CME futures had indeed played a role in the basis rise, but analysts are also becoming skeptical about the size of the crop Brazil will end up with, leaving fewer volumes to be traded.

One analyst said that it expected the country’s production to reach 162 million tonnes, but that it might be revised lower due to the drought stress in the central-west and excessive moisture in the south, even with better weather conditions forecast in the short term.

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Sales of the 2023-24 soybean crop fell by 24.3% to 28,000 tonnes during the week, while sales of the 2022-23 crop decreased 66% to 385,000 tonnes.

The new sales took the total amount for the 2023-24 crop, with 1.2 million tonnes sold, which is 22.6% lower than the 1.5 million tonnes reported at the same point in 2022.

Regarding the 2022-23 crop, 15.3 million tonnes has been sold to date, down 50% from the 30.7 million tonnes sold at the same time last year.

Export license applications for the 2023-24 crop reached 380,000 tonnes, while 251,000 tonnes was reported a year ago.

Applications for export of the 2022-23 crop came to 1.9 million tonnes, lower than the 5.5 million tonnes reached at the same point last year.

Corn sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 corn crop fell 1.2% to 160,000 tonnes, while sales of the 2022-23 crop decreased by 43.9% to 773,000 tonnes in the week.

On a cumulative basis, 3.2 million tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold to date, down 37.3% from 5.2 million tonnes seen at the same point last year.

Total sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 25.6 million tonnes, which was 36.7% lower than at the same point last year.

Export license applications for the 2023-24 crop amounted to 430,000 tonnes, while 8.9 million tonnes were issued at the same point in 2022.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop amounted to 20.7 million tonnes, a 36.3% drop from a year earlier.

Wheat sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 wheat crop rose by 76% to 88,000 tonnes during the week, while sales of the 2022-23 crop were down 57.7% at 82,000 tonnes.

A total of 1.7 million tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold so far, down sharply from 5.3 million tonnes at the same point in 2022.

Cumulative sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 12 million tonnes compared with 22.2 million tonnes a year ago.

There were no export license applications for the 2023-24 crop – again in sharp contrast to the 8.8 million tonnes noted at the same point in the previous season.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop stood at 8.8 million tonnes, down 38.9% from a year earlier.

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Sales of the 2023-24 soybean crop fell 8.1% to 45,000 tonnes during the week while sales of the 2022-23 crop increased by 109.6% to 195,000 tonnes.

That took total sales of the 2023-24 crop to 833,200 tonnes, which is 26.7% lower than the 1.1 million tonnes reported at the same point in 2022.

Regarding the 2022-23 crop, 11.9 million tonnes have been sold to date, down 47.5% from the 22.7 million tonnes sold at the same time last year.

Export license applications for the 2023-24 crop reached 216,000 tonnes, while 20,000 tonnes were reported a year ago.

Applications for export of the 2022-23 crop came to 1 million tonnes, lower than the 1.5 million tonnes reached at the same point last year.

For more information about soybean market trends, visit our dedicated page for soy prices.

Corn sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 corn crop surged considerably to 607,000 tonnes from the previous 131,000 tonnes, while sales of the 2022-23 crop rose 4.8% to 1 million tonnes in the week.

On a cumulative basis, 2.3 million tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold to date, down 44% from 4.1 million tonnes seen at the same point last year.

Total sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 22.9 million mt, which was 39.6% lower than at the same point last year.

Export license applications for the 2023-24 crop totaled 430,000 tonnes, while 6.6 million tonnes were issued at the same point in 2022.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop amounted to 19.2 million mt, a drop of 40.7% from a year earlier.

For more information about corn market trends, visit our dedicated page for corn prices.

Wheat sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 wheat crop increased 179% to 165,000 tonnes during the week, while sales of the 2022-23 crop were 77.7% up at 128,000 tonnes.

A total of 1.3 million tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold so far, down sharply from 5.2 million tonnes a year earlier.

Cumulative sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 11.1 million tonnes compared with 21.7 million tonnes a year ago.

There were no export license applications for the 2023-24 crop – again in sharp contrast to the 8.8 million tonnes noted at the same point in the previous season.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop stood at 8.8 million tonnes, down by 38.9% from a year earlier.

For more information about wheat market trends, visit our dedicated page for wheat prices.

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Soybean exports

The average pace of soybean shipments per working day was 383,990 tonnes the previous week, lower than the prior week’s 418,322 tonnes but still 48.5% higher than the 258,488 tonnes average pace in August 2022.

August 2022 shipments totaled 5.9 million tonnes.

The country’s grain exporters’ association Anec expects August soybean exports to reach 7.8 million tonnes.

However, the association is also considering the possibility of a shorter cargo loading, leading to a possible loading range of between 7 million tonnes to 8.5 million tonnes.

Corn exports

In the corn market, Brazilian exports reached 5.2 million tonnes in the first three weeks of August, while 7.4 million tonnes were sent abroad in the whole month last year.

Average exports per working day totaled 373,204 mt, higher than the previous week’s 349,852 mt and up 15.2% from August 2022´s 323,743 tonnes.

Anec estimates the total August export to amount to 9 million tonnes.

Soy meal and oil exports

In the soybean market, Brazil’s meal exports amounted to 1.6 million tonnes in the first three weeks of August, versus 1.8 million tonnes shipments seen during the entire month in 2022.

The average pace of shipments per working day was 116,797 tonnes, below the prior week’s pace of 127,841 tonnes but 43.7% higher than the 81,241 tonnes average seen during the same month in 2022.

The grains exporters association forecasts that 2 million tonnes will be exported during the month.

The country’s vegetable oils and fats exports, composed mostly of soy oil, totaled 169,438 tonnes up to the third week of August, while in 2022 shipments for the same month totaled 237,519 tonnes.

The average export pace per working day was 12,102 tonnes, above the prior week’s 6,371 tonnes and 17.1% higher than the 10,326 tonnes seen during August 2022.

Keep up to date with the latest trends in the soy oil market by visiting our soy oil prices page.

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Sales of the 2023-24 soybean crop fell by 20.9% to 49,000 tonnes during the week, while sales of the 2022-23 crop dropped 11.8% to 112,000 tonnes.

Total sales of the 2023-24 crop reached 298,300 tonnes, which is 47.5% lower than the 568,900 tonnes reported at the same point in 2022.

Regarding the 2022-23 crop, 10.8 million tonnes have been sold to date, down 43.4% from the 19 million tonnes sold at the same time last year.

Export license applications for the 2023-24 crop reached 92,000 tonnes, while nothing was reported a year ago.

Applications for export of the 2022-23 crop came to 1 million tonnes, higher than the 893,000 tonnes reached at the same point last year.

Corn sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 corn crop fell 5.5% to 85,000 tonnes during the week, while sales of the 2022-23 crop decreased 28.1% to 583,000 tonnes.

On a cumulative basis, 464,200 tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold to date, down 84.5% from 3 million tonnes at the same point of last year.

Total sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 14.2 million tonnes, down by 52.9% from a year earlier.

Export license applications for the 2023-24 crop were set at 50,000 tonnes, while 4.8 million tonnes were issued at the same point in 2022.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop amounted to 12.4 million tonnes, a drop of 53.9% from a year earlier.

View our corn prices

Wheat sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 wheat crop decreased 18.9% to 47,000 tonnes during the week while sales of the 2022-23 crop were also down 26.8% to 128,000 tonnes.

A total of 509,200 tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold so far, down sharply from 4.7 million tonnes a year earlier.

Cumulative sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 9.7 million tonnes compared with 20.4 million tonnes a year ago.

There were no export license applications for the 2023-24 crop – again in sharp contrast to 8.6 million tonnes noted at the same point in the previous season.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop stood at 8.8 million tonnes, down by 38.9% from a year earlier.

For more information on the current wheat market, take a look at our dedicated page for wheat market insights.

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The average pace of soybean shipments was 768,340 tonnes per working day last week, up from the previous week’s average pace of 709,447 tonnes and 61.5% higher than the 475,705 tonnes average pace reported in June 2022.

The country’s grains exporters association (Anec) projects that Brazil will send 13.1 million tonnes of soybeans abroad this month, while last year’s exports totaled 9.9 million tonnes.

Corn exports

Brazilian corn exports amounted to 231,153 tonnes during the first two weeks of June this year, while the country shipped 989,299 tonnes during the entire month of June 2022.

The average daily pace of corn shipments was reported at 38,525 tonnes, lower than the previous week’s average pace of 17,494 tonnes and 18.2% lower than June 2022’s 47,109 tonnes.

Anec expects 1.65 million tonnes of corn to be exported during the month.

Soy meal and oil

Brazil’s soy meal exports reached 565,686 tonnes during the first two weeks of this month, while 2.2 million tonnes were sent abroad in June 2022.

Average shipments per working day totaled 94,281 tonnes, lower than the last week’s average pace of 125,673 and 11.6% under the 106,767 tonnes average in June 2022.

It is projected that 2.2 million tonnes will be exported this month, according to Anec’s data.

The country’s exports of vegetable oils and fats, mostly soy oil, and fats exports, mostly composed of soy oil, exports reached 152,544 tonnes in the period, while 341,049 tonnes were traded in June 2022.

The average export rate per working day reached 25,424 tonnes, higher than the prior week’s 15,346 tonnes and 56.5% higher than June 2022’s 16,240 tonnes.

Wheat exports

No Brazilian wheat was exported this month, while 36,312 tonnes were recorded at the same point last year.

Anec projects that the total exports on June 2023 will reach 33,000 tonnes.

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Sales of the new soybean crop increased by 23.9% to 876,000 tonnes during the week while sales of the 2021-22 crop declined by 3,3% to 58,000 tonnes.

Total sales of the 2022-23 crop reached 9 million tonnes, which is 43.2% lower than the 15.9 million tonnes in total sales reported at the same point last year.

Export license applications for the 2022-23 crop amounted to 896,000 tonnes, up from 413,000 a year ago.

Applications for export of the 2021-22 crop came to 5.6 million tonnes, higher than 5.2 million tonnes at the same point of last year.

Corn sales

Farmer sales of the 2022-23 corn crop rose by 8.7% to 570,000 tonnes during the week while sales of the 2021-22 crop were also up by 1.0% at 397,000 tonnes.

On a cumulative basis, 11.8 million tonnes of the 2022-23 crop have been sold to date, down by 52.2% from the 24.9 million tonnes at the same point of last year.

Total sales of the old crop of 48.5 million tonnes were down by 3.1% from a year earlier.

Export license applications for the 2022-23 crop at 11.4 million tonnes were down by 57.3% from the same time in 2022.

Export applications for the 2021-22 crop fell to 33.8 million tonnes, a drop of 14.1% from a year earlier.

Wheat sales

Farmer sales of the 2023-24 wheat crop rose by 55% to 31,000 tonnes during the week while sales of the 2022-23 crop increased by 26.6% to 176,000 tonnes.

A total of 299,200 tonnes of the 2023-24 crop has been sold so far, sharply down from 4 million tonnes a year earlier.

Sales of the 2022-23 crop of 8.9 million tonnes compares with 19.6 million tonnes a year ago.

There were no export license applications for the 2023-24 crop – in sharp contrast to 8.4 million tonnes at the same point in the previous season.

Export applications for the 2022-23 crop were at 8.8 million tonnes, down by 38.8% from a year earlier.

View our wheat prices

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The country’s bumper soybean crop – estimated at 154 million tonnes by the USDA – was said to have created many logistics problems that range from a lack of storage to shipment delays and have resulted in a sharp drop in premiums as exporters try and attract demand in June, July and August.

Those months are the key months for corn exports, as they usually mark the point when the lure of the corn export program overcomes soybean competitiveness as harvesting of the second corn crop, known as the safrinha, picks up steam through June.

But market sources have warned that the typical transition may not happen as smoothly this year, and an overlap of both export programs is highly possible, creating headaches for ports and logistics.

“Probably, the soybean (export) program will push the corn program one month later,” Eduardo Vanin, market analyst at Agrinvest, told Fastmarkets, with other local market sources sounding similar warnings.

“The fear is that we have something similar to what has been happening with soybeans if we have a bumper safrinha crop. There will still be a lot of soybeans to flow in the second semester when safrinha comes in.”, Siqueira declared.

Players are expecting a strong safrinha crop as the Brazilian national food agency Conab estimates 95.3 million tonnes of corn to be harvested this season, a number that raises concerns of further stress on a logistics chain that has struggled to absorb the country’s huge soybean crop.

“With no doubts, we will have a (corn) scenario really close to that of soybean’s regarding storage and logistics,” said Vinícius Alves, a broker with the company Agriasset.

Size matters

Early signs from Brazil’s agricultural powerhouse, the state of Mato Grosso, suggests that the crop is performing well, with local government agency IMEA expecting the harvest to deliver 46.4 million tonnes of corn – nearly half the entire safrinha.

“We’re hearing that many are expecting a record crop this year, while there are farmers’ cooperatives buying silo bags and other players stating they will have to store their corn outdoors.”, a trading source told us.

On the other hand, Siqueira also warned that many areas were sown outside the ideal window, elevating weather risks and pinning a lot of hope on sufficient rain and a lack of frosts as the winter approaches.

Demand

However, supply is only one side of the coin, and when it comes to demand, the lack of any strong pull is also catching the market’s attention, especially after many Brazilian enterprises signed the protocols required for them to export corn to China back in late 2022.

That had raised hopes of a strong new outlet for Brazilian corn exports, but according to one market source, their brokers had been showing offers to Chinese customers on a daily basis but with no success so far.

Meanwhile, Vanin of Agrinvest noted that only a relatively small portion of the crop had been sold in advance.

Melting prices

“Prices are melting (…) buyers are waiting for corn prices to fall a lot before buying some volumes,” Siqueira said, with some forward months already dipping into negative territory and prompt premiums collapsing.

“We will have corn in July and August [and face] the same problems we are having in the soybean now, a lot of product to a few demand,” Granopar’s analyst Aldo Lobo told us.

“This negative basis also is related to logistics, and there will be players during the harvest, selling corn due to logistic struggles,” Lobo said.

The moves appear to be working, with the plunge in Brazilian cash basis attracting attention from buyers, as the USDA reported the cancelation of 327,000 tonnes of US corn sales to China – a move that has sent shock waves through the North American complex.

That stoked thoughts from market analysts that Chinese buyers are preparing to switch their buying to Brazil.

“It is possible that they (China) are feeling more confident in the Brazilian crop and are now looking to exit some of the purchases they have on the books with the US,” Ted Seifried of US-based Zaner Ag Hedge said.

“It’s difficult to ignore the sharp collapse in Brazilian soybean basis and now watching Brazil corn basis trending lower, [it’s hard] not to feel there is additional corn basis weakness coming,” Kelly Herrick, another US-based analyst of Advance Trading, told Fastmarkets Agriculture.

“At the very least, it probably puts a halt to discussion of any additional US corn sales to China,” Herrick said.

On Tuesday, April 25, Brazilian Santos FOB market for July shipment was assessed at 25 cents per bushel under July CME future, a sharp drop from a week ago, when it was assessed at 20 cents per bushel over the same future.

For more information on the current corn market, take a look at our dedicated page for corn market insights.

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Corn sales

Farmer sales of the 2022-23 corn crop decreased by 22% to 60,000 tonnes during the week, while sales of the old 2021-22 crop dropped by 6.6% to 627,000 tonnes.

On a cumulative basis, a total of 6.9 million tonnes of the 2022-23 crop has been sold to date, down 52% from 14.4 million tonnes at the same point last year.

Meanwhile, sales of the old crop came to 44.8 million tonnes, down 5.2% from a year earlier.

Export license applications for the 2022-23 crop were at 10.2 million tonnes, down 54.2% from the same time in 2022.

Export applications for the 2021-22 crop landed at 33.3 million tonnes, 15.3% lower than a year earlier.

Soybean sales

New crop soybean sales climbed 148% during the week to 82,000 tonnes, in an opposite path to the 2021-22 crop, which fell 65.7% to 49,000 tonnes.

That took total sales of the 2022-23 crop to 2.7 million tonnes, while at the same point last year, sales totaled 5.4 million tonnes.

Export license applications for the 2022-23 crop totaled 379,000 tonnes versus 50,000 tonnes a year ago.

Applications for the 2021-22 crop came to 5.6 million tonnes, above the 5.2 million tonnes seen at the same point last year.

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Wheat sales

Farmer sales of the 2022-23 wheat crop fell 12.4% to 113,000 tonnes during the week, with sales of the 2021-22 crop stable throughout the week at 10,000 tonnes.

A total of 6.8 million tonnes of the 2022-23 crop has been sold so far, down 51% from a year earlier, while sales of the 2021-22 crop came to 23 million tonnes compared to 17.3 million tonnes a year ago.

Export license applications for the 2022-23 crop were at 8.8 million tonnes, down 32% when compared to the same period last year.

Export applications for the 2021-22 crop were at 14.5 million tonnes, up 33.4% from a year earlier.

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