Despite recent improvements, some ports – particularly Tarragona, on Spain’s east coast – are still experiencing vessel discharge delays of up to 10 days, while back in October the waiting time was even higher.

That has been part of a domino effect, sparked as deliveries from the country’s main suppliers did not arrive at the expected time, as loading delays among key export partners have affected many on the supply side – with most of Spain’s imports drawn from either the Black Sea or South America.

In Brazil, corn has had to compete with a huge soybean export program which has strained the country’s own export logistics as it simultaneously copes with the twin dynamics of its biggest ever corn and soybean crops.

In the Black Sea, the Ukrainian export grain deal was stopped in mid-July, when Russia pulled out of the four-way agreement with a huge number of ships still stranded in the queue waiting for inspection at Istanbul.

Meanwhile, generally high traffic in Romania – as the country stepped in to export both its own corn and Ukrainian stocks – meant it too suffered delays to loadings.

That all led to a situation where corn started to arrive to Spain later than had been expected – and generally arrived simultaneously rather than in a managed flow.

And, even though the significant delays started back in September, the consequences are still evident.

View our corn prices

Domestic outlook

At the same time, internal demand for feed grains was already slowing down amid a decline in livestock feed, in a move that led to slow discharge rates and slower deliveries to the domestic market.

That caused further shocks to the supply chain, as the slow pull from the internal market meant port storage remained reasonably full and further limits the capacity to unload the new vessels arriving.

For the 2023-24 marketing year, the USDA has already predicted a drop in cattle and pork production in Spain amid a decline in projections for exports outside the European Union and the sector’s relatively high production costs, which means potentially lower demand for feeds.

Spain is the biggest European grain importer, with annual imports of around 7 million tonnes of corn and 2 million of wheat on average over the last three years.

So far in the 2023-24 marketing year, corn imports have reached 2.7 million tonnes, which is almost 39% down compared to the same stage a year ago, although at the same time feed wheat imports have been higher at 1.97 million tonnes.

That is almost double the volume imported at the same time last year, according to the European Commission data, and comes amid heavy falls in wheat prices following last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine.

View our grains and oilseeds prices

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Tozero will process this waste at its recycling plant in Munich, Germany, which started operations in April this year, to recover all critical raw materials required for the production of new batteries, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite.

“If we manage to properly recycle locally accumulated battery waste, we can easily contribute beyond 50% of Europe’s demand on lithium – the white gold – locally by 2040,” Sarah Fleischer, Tozero co-founder and chief executive officer, said.

The venture is the latest in a string of Asian battery companies investing in the European market. This week, South Korean companies SK Ecoplant, TES and Ecopro announced plans to build a battery recycling plant in Hungary.

And Huayou Cobalt, the parent company of Huayou Recycling, has allocated €1.5 billion ($1.64 billion) to establish its first European cathode active material (CAM) production facility in Hungary to serve European customers.

“Current market projections indicate a monumental twenty-fold increase in lithium-ion battery production by 2030 [in Europe], accompanied by a daunting 740% surge in battery waste from 2022 to 2030,” the Tozero announcement said.

“Anticipated global lithium shortages of 52% by 2030…necessitate the European battery industry to seek alternative local sources of critical raw materials to maintain production targets,” the announcement continued.

Tozero claimed that, by 2027, it would operate Europe’s largest battery recycling facility, with an annual capacity to recycle 90,000 tonnes of lithium-ion batteries, producing up to 6,000 tonnes of locally sourced lithium.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of the black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, nickel, domestic, exw Europe, % payable LME nickel cash official price was 55-60% on November 22, unchanged week on week.

The corresponding assessment of the black mass, NCM/NCA payable indicator, cobalt, domestic, exw Europe, % payable Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price (low-end) was also 55-60% on the same day, also unchanged week on week.

Want more insights and forecasts for the battery recycling and black mass market?

Keep up to date with global market insights and predictions for the battery recycling market with the Fastmarkets NewGen Battery Recycling Outlook.

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Fastmarkets’ assessment of the discount for copper scrap No1 copper, delivered to brass mill US remained at 7-10 cents per lb on Wednesday, flat since June 7. 

Fastmarkets’ assessment of the discount for copper scrap No1, delivered to refiners was also stable at 10-13 cents per lb on November 22, flat since October 4.

A second source also said that the market is “very quiet” with “no changes to spreads.”

Discounts to brass ingot makers were a bit more mixed on the week.

Fastmarkets’ assessment for the copper scrap No1 bare bright discount and No1 copper discount, delivered to brass ingot makers held at 4-6 cents per lb and 18-21 cents per lbs on Wednesday, respectively. 

The unchanged prices come amid new fluctuations on the Comex. The most-active December delivery Comex copper contract fell day on day to $3.763 per lb on November 22, but was up week on week from $3.7185 per lb on November 15. The price had risen to a weekly high of $3.814 per lb on Monday November 20 before declining again. 

Brass prices were also unchanged, though a brass source said prices had tightened slightly in the beginning of the week amid the upward pressure from Comex prices and export demand.

Fastmarkets’ assessment for No1 comp solids, delivered to brass ingot makers remained at $2.86-2.90 per lb on November 22, flat from the previous week.

Prices for copper scrap radiators, delivered to brass ingot makers also held at $2.34-2.37 per lb on Wednesday, stable from the previous week.

One buyer noted that “for the most part, [prices are] stable from last week,” and that while prices had seen some increases with the rising Comex rates on Monday and Tuesday there were largely back in line with the previous week’s assessments by November 22.

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Northvolt’s sodium-ion battery is based on a hard-carbon anode and a Prussian White-based cathode, and the Swedish battery manufacturer plans to be the first to industrialize and commercialize Prussian White-based batteries. 

“Our next step is to present these batteries to customers during 2024, and then gradually establish and scale up production throughout the following years,” Northvolt told Fastmarkets. 

The company is still in the process of finding partners to scale up this technology. 

Northvolt’s sodium-ion battery technology is primarily designed for energy storage system (ESS), with a potential application for electric vehicles in the future. 

“The low cost and safety at high temperatures make the technology especially attractive for ESS in the upcoming markets including India, the Middle East and Africa,” the company said in a statement. 

Sodium-ion batteries have a lower cost and are less reliant on critical raw materials such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, which makes sodium-ion batteries an attractive alternative to lithium-ion batteries like lithium-iron-phosphate, nickel-cobalt-manganese and nickel-cobalt-aluminum batteries. 

However, the decline in lithium chemical prices since late 2022 amid slowdown in electric vehicle growth has sparked a debate on the need for sodium-ion batteries as an alternative battery to lithium-ion batteries.

Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 141,00-150,000 yuan per tonne on November 16, down from 590,000-605,000 yuan per tonne on November 17, 2022. 

Fastmarkets’ research team has forecast that the global sodium-ion battery usage for ESS is 0.1% in 2023 and will reach up to 9% by 2033. Currently, 70-80% of the battery used for ESS is LFP, with 95% of the overall batteries for ESS being lithium-ion batteries.

Keep up to date with the latest lithium prices, data and forecasts on our dedicated lithium price page.

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Battery swapping is a technology that allows battery-powered vehicles to switch a depleted battery with a fully charged one in a matter of minutes. The benefits of using swap stations instead of traditional charging points include is that they offer faster charging times, eliminate wait time and enable consumers to avoid peak hours. The concept has taken off in Asia, particularly within China and Taiwan, as automakers and two-and-three wheeler (2/3 wheeler) companies seek to speed the pace at which consumers can replenish their battery charge.

Battery swap stations can take different forms depending on the operator. The most common in the passenger electric vehicle (EV) segment is Nio’s swap stations operating across China and Europe and Gogoro’s 2/3 wheeler stations in Taiwan. In Nio’s stations, car owners can drive their vehicles into the station, where there are 13 available batteries to reserve in advance. The battery from the underside of the car will then be remotely switched out and replaced with a fully charged alternative, all taking place in under 5 minutes. With Gogoro, by comparison, the station is manually operated by consumers due to the smaller size of the batteries. In this case, a charged battery can be lifted out of a station, where 30 charged batteries are available.

What demand do we expect from battery swapping?

Fastmarkets expects that battery swapping will require over 117 gigawatt hours (GwH) of batteries by 2033, with a notable upside risk for this number to increase due to the pace of uptake. In terms of markets, we expect that China will hold 69% of the market, with operators such as Nio, CATL, Aulton, GAC and a JV between Geely and Livan leading the development of swap stations in the market. Notably, CATL is investing in swap stations for passenger EVs, as well as heavy electric vehicles, with its QIJI Heavy-duty truck swap services, the first of its kind globally. Gogoro, with a forecasted 12,000 2/3 wheeler swap stations to be operational by year-end 2023, will lead the market in Taiwan. This is in addition to KYMCO, which can hold, in some cases, 50 batteries in one 2/3 wheeler swap station.

Will battery swapping replace charging infrastructure?

We expect that traditional battery charging points will remain the dominant choice for the EV market going forward, but that battery swapping will continue to rise in popularity over time. We expect this to happen predominantly in Asia. This is likely to happen in the electric 2/3 wheeler market, which is expanding rapidly. Our forecast below shows that we expect sales to reach over 48 million units by 2033.

China will make up 46% of that market and India 39%, representing over 22 million and 19 million units. This large fleet presents issues for traditional charging. It would require a large area of land to install sufficient charging points for such a high number of 2/3 wheelers, with the longer wait times also presenting scenarios where potentially hundreds of people could be waiting for their vehicle to recharge.

We expect slower uptake in Europe and North America for two reasons. Firstly, EV adoption remains more nascent in these markets compared to China, particularly in the 2/3 wheeler market, making

traditional charging points more attractive at this point. Secondly, the automakers that do offer swaps as a charging option are predominantly based in Asia. Until we see greater demand for these brands across Europe and North America, we won’t see a notable rise in swapping. That said, particularly in urban areas, swaps offer utility to densely populated cities looking to improve the efficiency of their charging infrastructure. We expect to see uptake of the stations in dense cities in Europe in the foreseeable future. As Nio builds their fleet of battery swap stations in Europe, we also expect that other companies will follow suit as confidence in the infrastructure builds.

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

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These option settlements are cash-settled and differ from many of the CME commodity options on futures that provide the right but not the obligation to purchase a futures contract.

Several strategies can be employed by producers and end-users who engage in commodity hedging, which take advantage of the flexibility offered by option contracts. Before we dive into some of the hedging strategies that can be used, we will touch on some option contract basics.

What is an option on futures contract?

There are a few different types of options offered by the CME. An option on a futures contract is a financial derivative that combines options and futures trading. It allows traders to have the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a futures contract at a specific price (known as the strike price) on or before a predetermined date (known as the expiration or exercise date). To purchase an option, the buyer pays the seller a premium.

Unlike futures contracts, options on futures provide flexibility and can have limited risk for traders and procurement managers. A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying futures contract at a specific price. In contrast, a put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying futures contract at a predefined price.

Traders and procurement managers can use these options to hedge against potential losses, limit their exposure to market volatility, or speculate on lithium price movements. The most money the option buyer can lose is the premium that is paid to purchase the call or put option. Unlike the buyer, the seller can have unlimited risk.

What is an average-priced option contract on lithium hydroxide and cobalt metal?

The new lithium and cobalt option contracts that are listed are average-priced. An averaged-priced option is a type of financial security that derives its value based on the average price of an underlying asset over a specific period. The CME contracts use the average price calculated by Fastmarkets for a calendar month. These lithium and cobalt option contracts are cash-settled.

Instead of the option buyer having the right to buy or sell lithium futures or cobalt futures contracts, the buyer receives a cash payment for the difference between the strike and settlement price. An option strike price refers to the predetermined price at which an option can be exercised. No cash payment is made if the option settles out-of-the-money.

“Out of the money” for a call option means the option’s strike price is higher than the current market price of the underlying asset. Similarly, for a put option, it means the strike price is lower than the current market price. When an average-priced option settles out-of-the-money, the option seller keeps the premium, and the buyer does not receive a payout.

With an averaged-priced option, the payoff is determined by the average price of the underlying asset over the specified period. This averaging mechanism helps reduce the impact of short-term price fluctuations and can be helpful in situations where the underlying asset’s price is volatile.

The averaging can be suitable for hedging regular cash flows. The average-priced lithium options contracts settle like the lithium futures contracts. The difference is the option contract buyer’s loss is limited to the premium paid for the option.

Since the payoff of the options equals the under-average price, the effective historical volatility is lower. Daily spikes or drops in a commodity price generally occur more often than spikes or drops in a monthly calendar average. Therefore, average-priced options usually cost less than European or American-style options that expire simultaneously and have similar lengths of time remaining before a financial contract expires.

What option strategies can be used to hedge lithium or cobalt?

Asian option contracts on lithium hydroxide and cobalt offer traders and corporate hedgers several ways to mitigate their exposure to changing lithium prices and cobalt prices.

For example, a producer might consider purchasing a put option. The producer attains the right to sell lithium hydroxide at a specific strike price. The most the producer can lose on the hedge is the premium of the options.

The payout profile of a $20 strike put option shows that the producer will receive a payout for any price below $20 minus the premium paid for the put option. The producer will lose the premium paid for the options at expiration if the price of lithium hydroxide remains above $20.

Another example could be that an electric vehicle OEM exposed to lithium hydroxide might consider buying a call option. In this scenario, the OEM will pay an option’s premium, and the most they could lose is the premium paid for the option. The payout profile of a $30 strike call option shows that the OEM will receive a payout for any price above $30 plus the premium paid for the call option. A loss will occur at expiration, which is limited to the premium, if the price of LIOH remains below $30.

What if you don’t want to pay a premium?

If volatility rises, the premiums on lithium options could also increase, making call options and put option contracts more expensive. An alternative to purchasing a call or put option might be to combine one with another, where the producer or consumer sells one type of option and simultaneously buys another.

A costless collar is a hedging strategy that can be used to hedge lithium exposure where the producer or consumer does not have to pay a premium. For example, an OEM might purchase a $28 call option and sell a $20 put option where the premium from the sold put option offsets the premium from the call option purchase.

The payout profile of a purchase of a $28 strike call option combined with the sale of a $20 put option shows that a loss will occur at expiration if the price of LIOH remains below $30. The OEM will receive a payout for any price above $30. If the average price of lithium hydroxide is below $28 and above $20, there will be no exchange of cash. If the average price is below $20, the OEM will pay the difference between the average settlement price and $20. 

For example, if the average price of lithium for a calendar month settles at $30, the OEM will receive $2 = $30 – $28. No cash will be exchanged if the average price settles at $25. If the average price settles at $18, the OEM must pay $2 = $20 – $18.

The bottom line

The upshot is that there are several different option strategy combinations that a producer or consumer can use to hedge their lithium hydroxide or cobalt metal exposure. The benefit of using options is that they provide more flexibility than a futures contract. What is essential to understand is several components are used to generate the premium of an averaged-price option.

In addition to the price of lithium hydroxide and cobalt metal, the implied volatility, the strike price, current interest rates, and the time to maturity play a critical role in determining the premium of an option contract.

Additionally, when financial option contracts initially launch, success can sometimes be attributed to finding options sellers. 

For example, a producer might want to sell a call option since they already own the physical underlying commodity. An OEM might want to sell embedded options, which are listed in their physical offtake contracts. These are sometimes called ceilings or caps, look-back pricing, or escalators. These types of options can be monetized by potentially selling them to a financial institution.

Don’t hesitate to contact our risk solutions team if you would like some insight into how to hedge your lithium hydroxide/carbonate or cobalt metal risk using option contracts.

The post How lithium and cobalt option contracts can help producers and consumers with hedging strategies appeared first on Fastmarkets.

1. Slow growth in China

Slow growth in China continued to spook market participants. Those who have recently returned from trips there shared anecdotes and photographs on social media of blue skies and a lack of cranes and active construction sites, while remaining acutely aware of the importance of the world’s second-largest economy. Find out more about this evolving market at Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asian Conference 2024. Learn more.

“China gives the direction; it’s the captain,” one ferro-chrome market participant told Fastmarkets on the sidelines of the conference.

2. High electricity prices

Even though electricity prices have come down, they were still extremely high historically and at the forefront of people’s minds, making up a huge portion of input costs. This made sellers reluctant to reduce prices despite subdued demand, leading to suggestions of production cuts in various markets.

3. Potential growth in India

There was a lot of potential for growth in India’s domestic market, but we should not expect it to be the ‘next China.’

“[The economy of] India needs to grow by 10% to offset China dropping by 1%, to keep global steel production stable,” Kevin Fowkes, research director at global consultant Wood MacKenzie, told delegates while speaking on the manganese ore and alloy panel on Monday afternoon.

4. Global uncertainty

Delegates were still wading through exceptionally high levels of uncertainty in geopolitics and macro-economics, with high interest rates and inflation forcing them to rethink trading strategies.

Legislative changes in Europe, in the form of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), added another layer of complexity, with few people understanding what it meant for them, and how and even whether it will work.

“The reporting periods are coming soon, and the [levels of reported emissions] are going to be horrendous,” one financial source told Fastmarkets on the sidelines.

5. Mine depletion

Mine depletion remained a long-term concern, with the manganese content of ore from various origins expected to reduce over the next few years.

Fastmarkets heard that these declining grades could mean “higher costs and a greater environmental burden,” Jack Bedder, founder of data provider Project Blue, told delegates from the manganese panel. But, if it were economical, the sintering of fines could be an alternative method to upgrade lower-content ores, industry sources said.

6. Decarbonization

Decarbonization by 2050 would not be achieved without offsets and there were significant trade-offs, such as balancing the need for greener reductants against wider environmental degradation.

One example of this would be making sure that the replacement of coke with green alternatives, such as acacia and bamboo chips, did not lead to deforestation.

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“The problem is the most hazardous carbon emitting [part of manganese alloy production] is the use of coal or coke [reductants],” Kumar said.

But there are several things that can be done to make production greener, he added, with AML planning to secure land in Malaysia to grow new forests to create biocarbon reductants in the form of charcoal and wood chips.

Kumar added that producer AML plans to source 40% of its carbon reductant needs from those new forests for its Pertama ferro-alloys plant in Sarawak, Malaysia to drastically reduce carbon emissions.

Fowkes pointed out that many of the green measures producers can take up have trade-offs, with biocarbon reductants said to be less efficient and therefore more expensive. As well as there being issues with supply.

“There would be no tree left in the world if everyone is using charcoal,” Fowkes said.

Access to green energy was also a large factor in reducing emissions, with producers operating in countries such as Malaysia, Norway, Iceland and Brazil having the advantage of access to hydroelectric power.

Project Blue founder Beddar said “a lot can be done to improve emissions as a whole” but described complete eradication as “impossible”. Project Blue provides consultancy on critical materials for energy transition.

Other methods discussed to achieve greener production included switching diesel-run equipment to electric-operated machinery, waste heat recovery processes and carbon capture.

However, panelists stressed the need for government subsidies to support greener production across the manganese chain.

Emerging EV end market

The experts also discussed expected demand and supply for manganese sulfate for use in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. While manganese sulfate supply is expected to grow significantly in the next two decades, the manganese industry will still be heavily dominated by alloy production for use in steelmaking, Fastmarkets heard.

Panelists also considered the role of India in the supply chain, with all in agreement that India’s steel market will grow and thus demand for manganese alloys and ore, “but not to extent China has grown”.

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An increasing number of companies are opting for MHP instead of the more traditional nickel metal (briquettes) and nickel matte production routes. But South Korea remains one of the only countries outside of China building MHP conversion capacity.

Despite this, there are currently only two nickel sulfate producers in South Korea that can take MHP as a primary feedstock to produce battery grade nickel sulfate.

Concerns remain with some market participants over the environmental impact of MHP.

MHP and matte are primarily produced in Indonesia, using fossil fuels as a power source, leading to a higher carbon footprint.

Fastmarkets assessed the daily nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate outright price, cif China, Japan and South Korea at $13,300-13,500 per tonne on November 17, down slightly from $13,800-14,000 per tonne the previous day.

The daily nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate payable indicator, % London Metal Exchange, cif China, Japan and South Korea was at 76-79% on November 17, stable over the week.

As part of the deal, Trafigura will supply Korea Zinc with 20,000-40,000 tonnes per year of feedstock.

“With the energy transition in progress, Korea Zinc is committed to solidifying its position as the world’s leading non-ferrous metal refiner in the field of nickel, a key battery material,” Korea Zinc chairman Yun B Choi said.

The agreement between Korea Zinc andhttps://xml.metalbulletin.com/Article/5113351/Battery-raw-materials-all/Korea-Zinc-Trafigura-eye-nickel-smelter-sulfate-refinery-joint-venture.html Trafigura comes after the two parties discussed a joint venture for a nickel smelting and sulfate refining project in November 2022.

Fastmarkets assessed the nickel sulfate, cif Japan and Korea price at $4,070 per tonne on Friday November 17. The price has been weakening over the past two months from $4,881.47 per tonne on September 8.

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

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A ‘grand challenge’ launched by Joe Biden’s government in late 2021 is intended to encourage production of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030, and then increasing production tenfold to 35 billion gallons over the next two decades.

However, the research suggests that the country only has feedstock capacity to produce 21.7 billion gallons of theoretical SAF production, but only 12.2 billion gallons would come from biomass sources deemed to be sustainable.

The report defined sustainable biomass as any feedstock “without adverse market and environmental consequences.”

Examining the 2030 target of 3 billion gallons through four low-risk to high-risk feedstock and technology scenarios, the report determined that under all four scenarios the target was feasible.

At the lowest risk end – where technology already exists and supply is already being produced – ICCT estimated that production is likely to reach just over 3 billion gallons by 2030.

Around 40% of that output would reflect waste-based hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) with the balance coming from second-generation cellulosic production that typically uses non-food parts of plants or municipal city waste.

A high-risk production scenario, using waste and crop-based HEFA, second generation cellulosic fuels and conventional alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) technologies could see production ramp up to just short of 7 billion gallons by 2030, according to the report.

However, the dramatic ramp up in mandates to 35 billion gallons would likely be out of the reach of all forms of US feedstocks and would fall significantly short of target when non-sustainable feedstocks are exclusively deployed.

“In total, we find that the United States has approximately 21.7 billion gallons of theoretical SAF production from available biomass, but only 12.2 billion gallons of that is from sustainably available biomass,” the report said.

The report also noted that the current tax incentives, also introduced by the Biden administration to encourage investment in SAF production, only run out to 2027.

“Without a long-term price signal, SAF developers will lack sufficient incentive to invest in projects from less-tested, advanced fuel pathways,” the report warned, concluding that technology delays will likely blunt early production potential.

Pathways reliant upon HEFA production – an advanced form of renewable diesel – will be highly resource constrained, while AtJ pathways are likely to be expensively prohibitive in the near term.

Available resources and sustainability

In feedstock terms, the two biggest available resources – corn grain and soybean oil – will both largely fall short of the threshold required to be deemed sustainable, with both failing to meet the 50% life cycle GHG reductions that are required under the main compliance scheme, CORSIA.

When pushing on from the 2030 target, the report calculated the biggest single contributor to the SAF production pool stood to be corn grain ethanol, with 43.9 million tonneds of feedstock likely to be able to deliver around 6.9 billion gallons of SAF, at a conversion factor of just under 50%.

However, that would equate to virtually the entire supply of US corn ethanol currently heading into the road fuel mix, while the second place feedstock – soy oil – likely to be able to contribute a maximum 15.3 million tonnes at a 100% crush rate

That would yield 2.67 billion gallons of SAF, but both would find it difficult to contribute under current GHG reduction compliance requirements.

Of the feedstocks that are deemed to be sustainable, agricultural residues could contribute 161.1 million tonnes of feedstock and 4.88 billion gallons of SAF, while next best option was energy crops, that could produce 2.72 billion gallons of SAF from 89.7 million tonnes of feedstock.

Animal fats were identified as the most productive feedstock, with 500,000 tonnes of feedstock resulting in 420 million gallons of SAF, followed by corn oil where 700,000 tonnes of feedstock could produce 370 million gallons.

“Approaching the long-term SAF target would require substantial diversion of feedstock from other economic sectors,” the report notes, and called for incentives to be “extended and expanded” post-2030.

“There is insufficient biomass to meet the long-term 2050 target… the current set of policies in place are insufficient to expand SAF deployment beyond 3 billion gallons,” the ICCT said.

The report tap into the mounting concerns around the ambitious SAF mandates that both the US and the European Union have set out as they attempt to decarbonise the hard-to-abate aviation section.

With other parts of the world also looking at their waste-based and vegetable oil feedstock slate, and competition for feedstocks intensifying, meeting these targets will require significant investment and securing of relevant feedstocks.

The EU is looking to ensure 70% of its entire aviation supply uses SAF by 2050, up from 0.03% as of 2020.

View our feedstock prices

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