Several exporters have reported obtaining licenses to ship gallium out of China in the past two weeks, after the country’s gallium and germanium export controls came into effect on August 1.

So far, the licenses have been granted for shipments to consumers, Fastmarkets understands, with no exports to traders having yet been approved.

In light of the licenses being granted, some market participants expected the prices for gallium in China to increase, when foreign demand returned to the market.

A change in sentiment does appear to have materialized in China’s gallium market, where prices have increased on five consecutive weekly pricing sessions after plummeting when the export control was imposed.

The assessed price for gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs China was 2,000-2,100 yuan ($277-292) per kg on September 22 – the last session before China’s national holidays. This marked a 6.49% increase from the 1,900-1,950 yuan per tonne on September 15.

“It’s because of hope [that foreign demand will push up prices],” one market participant said.

Any price relief from material being shipped out of China has not yet emerged in Europe.

Fastmarkets’ twice-weekly price assessment for gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs Rotterdam was $ 400-450 per kg on October 4, unchanged since September 8, but up from $250-265 per kg on June 30, which was the last price assessment before the Chinese government announced the export curbs on July 3.

Gallium is particularly vulnerable to supply disruption due to the concentration of its production in China. According to the US Geological Survey, China contributes some 98% of global production.

But market participants have indicated that the new controls may prove to be a boon for the establishment of Western production.

As for germanium – also covered under the export control – China is similarly the dominant producing country, with almost 68% of global production, yet overall production is more diversified, so the price impact of China’s export controls has been more restrained.

Hafnium demand stable, panic dissipates

The whirlwind price increase for hafnium over the last 18 months has generated much buzz in the market.

Driven by the metal’s inelastic supply, increased demand for superalloys generated by a post-pandemic return of the aerospace sector, and new consumption from the electronics sector, prices have increased to record highs.

Fastmarkets’ bi-weekly assessed price for hafnium, max 1% Zr, in-whs global locations was $5,200-7,100 per kg on September 22, stable from the previous session, but nearly four times higher than the $1,640-1,750 per kg a year earlier, on September 23, 2022.

The metal is used in high-performance super-alloys, particularly for aerospace, and can be used for high-performance computer chips.

Hafnium has been used in semiconductors since at least the mid-2000s. In 2007, Intel announced its deployment of two dramatically new materials to build the insulating walls and switching gates of its 45 nanometer transistors.

Since then, little information has been made public about how, and in what quantities hafnium is being used in the semiconductor industry.

However, reports suggest that top-end dynamic random-access semiconductor memory (DRAM) uses a thin layer of a hafnium-based material on top of its capacitors to insulate and block current leakage.

New demand for chips to support new artificial intelligence (AI) applications was particularly important for the metal’s recent price increase, according to a market participant.

Strong demand for the metal persists, according to the contact, though initial panic while consumers rushed to secure supply has somewhat dissipated.

“It is easier to buy today than it was six months ago, and there is material available in Europe… but consumers needing material in the short term can expect to pay higher prices,” they said.

Despite better availability, the market is still not yet in oversupply.

“There still isn’t plenty of material, and some of the large producers are presold for most of next year,” the contact said.

Indium fundamentals still weak, market participants say

Despite a recent price increase driven by speculation in China, market participants told Fastmarkets that demand for the metal – particularly reliant on macro-economic and consumer sentiment – is soft.

Sources observed a continued reduction in demand for products using indium, including some types of consumer electronic batteries that use the metal to stabilize zinc, indium tin oxide (ITO) which is used in LCD screens and indium-based compounds used in semiconductors.

“My feeling is that going into next year the price will decrease,” a market participant said.

A second market participant observed that the chemicals sector had been particularly badly impacted by poor macro-economics and consumer sentiment.

Fastmarkets’ twice weekly price assessment for indium 99.99%, in-whs Rotterdam was $245-290 per kg on October 4, stable compared with the previous assessment on September 29.

Indium prices increased dramatically in the wake of the export controls on gallium and germanium, with market participants pointing to speculative action on the Liyang Zhonglianjin e-exchange as driving this increase in China.

Despite the higher prices in China, which produces and consumes most of the world’s indium, market participants report that lower prices are available outside the country.

Follow all the latest LME Week insights by visiting our dedicated content hub.

The post China grants gallium, germanium export licences; hafnium prices stable; indium fundamentals weak: LME Week appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Silicon is used as an anode material in a number of different forms, with vastly different price tags and energy efficiencies.

In a presentation at Fastmarkets’ European Battery Raw Materials (BRM) Conference in Amsterdam on September 18-20, the chief executive of silicon anode material developer E-magy, Casper Peeters, said a variety of silicon-based materials can be used as anode material.

The cheapest form, with the lowest energy capacity, is silicon oxide, which is currently used in small quantities in graphite-dominant anodes. The highest energy density comes is in silicon produced via silane gas, he said. Other forms include silicon-carbon composites and chemical vapor deposition (CVD).

China dominant

As with silicon metal and number of other BRMs, China is currently responsible for most of the world’s output of high-purity silicon for anodes.

Last week, Shenzhen Aipunuo New Energy Technology announced a $1.5 billion investment in a 300,000 tonnes per year silicon-based anode project at Xichang in Sichuan province in southwest China.

The first stage of the project’s construction is expected to have a capacity of some 120,000 tonnes of silicon-carbon anode material when it starts operations in December 2024.

The risks related to China’s dominance in supplies of another silicon-based net-zero technology – solar panels – have become apparent in recent years, with the United States banning imports of some Chinese solar materials over the use of forced labor in the major polysilicon-producing region Xinjiang.

And non-Chinese producers are moving to introduce additional supply, in part to allow consumers to source material while having to comply with legislation such as the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Several Western companies are moving into the silicon anode sector, including Canada-based NEO Battery Materials, which expects to produce 5,000 tonnes of anode material annually, once its commercial plant completes its final expansion phase in 2027-2028.

This would be sufficient to supply 3.5 million electric vehicles annually, the company said.

Unlike many of its competitors, NEO’s products are based on high-purity metallurgical-grade silicon, which is coated using a proprietary process, as opposed to silicon oxide or silicon-carbon composites.

The company told Fastmarkets that the supply and consumption of high-purity silicon metal will allow the production of anodes that are 70-80% cheaper than their nano-engineered silicon anode counterparts.

NEO said that silicon metal producers, both inside and and outside of China, are ramping up the production of high-purity silicon metal for anode materials.

Burgeoning Western production

Multiple major silicon producers in the West have cited demand from the green energy transition –including for solar and batteries – as presenting future opportunities for demand.

Among them is leading global silicon producer Ferroglobe, which plans to expand its production of high-purity silicon for anodes should demand prove sufficient, a spokesperson said.

Ferroglobe and NEO Battery Materials entered into a Memorandum of Understanding in 2021 to “pursue synergies and mutual benefit through combining NEO’s silicon nanocoating technology and Ferroglobe’s silicon materials to optimize the electro-chemical performance, and the cost of the silicon powder and anode materials in lithium-ion batteries.”

Initially, Ferroglobe aims to supply high-purity silicon raw materials to producers making silicon-carbon anode composites and to silicon oxide-based anode producers.

It currently has capacity to produce high-purity silicon metal at its plants in Spain and France, with milling capacity in Spain, and has plans in place to add capacity elsewhere – including in the US.

“We have strategic plans to increase capacity in Europe and North America, but its execution will depend on commercialization,” the company added.

Additionally, the company’s plant at Bécancour, Canada – which is the home to several other BRM companies – presents another opportunity for expansion of production, given the mass of battery companies concentrated there.

“We are developing new ‘micrometric’ [sized] silicon to be used in silicon-dominant anodes,” the spokesperson added.

Silicon anode production has been at the heart of the strategic direction of several other companies, including Sinova Global, an emerging North American producer of a range of silicon products.

Sinova CEO Jayson Tymko told Fastmarkets that his company plans to produce silicon metal at 99.90-99.99% purity which can be used either to compliment or to replace graphite in anodes.

The company’s high-purity silicon is expected to supply nano-engineered silicon anode materials – with the extra refinements required to process high-purity silicon metal into anodes to be carried out by its customers.

The company has been in talks with different North American and Asian anode manufacturers, Tymko said, with those in North America particularly eager for local supplies.

Future developments and pricing

In part due to the availability of cheaper and sometimes subsidized energy sources in China, the country is currently able to produce lower-cost silicon metal.

Fastmarkets currently assesses two grades of metallurgical silicon in Europe – 4-4-1 (99%) and 5-5-3 (98.50%). It currently only assesses 5-5-3 grade in China.

Fastmarkets’ assessed price for silicon grade 5-5-3 98.5% Si min, in-whs Rotterdam was stable at €1,950-2,200 ($2,075-2,342) per tonne on September 22.

The assessed price for silicon export 98.5% Si min, fob China was $2,000-2,050 per tonne on the same day, rising from $1,980-2,020 per tonne on September 15.

The price disparity also extends to anode-grade silicon metal, according to NEO, which cited figures showing a price disparity between anode-grade silicon metal produced in and out of China.

Ferroglobe was unable to give details about the cost of its materials, but the company spokesperson said it was aiming to develop a “cost-effective silicon raw material and anodic materials.”

“Ferroglobe is looking at the sweet spot between performance, cost and industrialization,” the spokesperson said.

Similarly, Tymko said Sinova would be price-competitive, especially considering the incentives introduced by legislation such as the IRA – although the company is still assessing the exact impact of any legislative incentives.

“Presently, the focus on onshoring is pushing initiatives faster but, ultimately, [it will be] availability, quality and price that will prevail – and Sinova feels strongly that we can win on all three fronts,” Tymko said.

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

The post Ex-China silicon producers to increase output to meet burgeoning battery anode consumption appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The lower price for lithium carbonate has made it more difficult for sodium-ion batteries to be seen as an attractive alternative for energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicles (EVs), cell makers at the conference told Fastmarkets.

“Now that the lithium carbonate price is lower, and lithium iron phosphate [LFP] batteries are proven to be efficient and commercially viable, we don’t really need sodium-ion batteries any more,” a consumer said.

Another issue with sodium-ion batteries is that there is no established supply chain other than the one inside China. This means that if original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and cell makers want to use sodium-ion batteries, they will need to establish the supply chain, whereas there already is an established supply chain for LFP batteries.

ESS stakeholders also said that the sodium-ion battery technology does not have a sufficient life cycle to meet the needs for ESS investors. Energy density is an important factor for ESS because the projects want to have longer duration.

Despite all these obstacles, many conference attendees told Fastmarkets that sodium-ion batteries will not be completely discarded, because the trends for batteries are changing inconsistently.

“We are all waiting to see how the sodium-ion batteries market develops in China,” a consultant source said. “I guess China has become the model to follow when establishing anything new in the battery market.”

2. EU black mass market awaits ‘level playing field’ on export codes

Participants in the market for black mass expressed their frustration at the current lack of a level playing field for black mass exports from the EU.

Under current rules, certain black mass generators are allowed by their local governments to export the material as a “product” that can be shipped anywhere in the world.

Other EU battery-shredding operations – including many which have requested licenses recently – see their black mass output treated as a hazardous waste. This means that they must follow procedures under the Basel Convention and are prevented from exporting to nations outside of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

“From next year, that will all change,” Elewout Depicker said. He is vice-president for commercial and corporate development, Europe-Middle East-Asia, for Switzerland-based Li-Cycle. “From June, all [black mass] streams will be classified as hazardous,” he added. “[This means that] trade routes to nations including Malaysia will be closed.”

3. Price premium required for non-Chinese manganese sulfate, producers say

Prominent ex-China producers of battery-grade manganese sulfate reiterated that material produced outside of China, which currently dominates global production, will require a significant premium.

Madelein Todd, chief marketing officer at leading high-purity manganese metal producer Manganese Metal Co (MMC), was emphatic on this point.

“High purity manganese refined outside of China will cost you more than you thought or hoped… I don’t think I can state that any clearer,” she said in a presentation providing an outlook on the market.

MMC intends to supply its high-purity metal for the production of manganese sulfate while also working toward introducing its own manganese sulfate production.

Although non-Chinese manganese sulfate would require a premium, Todd said that the overall effect on battery cell cost would be limited, with the material representing a relatively minor input cost in EV battery chemistries such as nickel–manganese–cobalt (NMC).

4. Industry calls for further government support in Europe

Ahead of the conference, on September 13, the European Commission launched an investigation into whether to impose tariffs on cheaper Chinese EVs being sold into the region, in order to protect domestic producers.

These investigations are in line with other measures such as the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which was passed to encourage improvement in the domestic supply chains for the EV sector within Europe.

But participants across the value chain expressed the view that the current measures were not enough.

“Europe is at risk of being left behind, particularly when you look at the initiatives in the United States,” one trader said on the sidelines of the conference, referring to the US’ Inflation Reduction Act.
Comparisons between the IRA and the EU’s measures were commonplace among delegates.

Speaking about reports of potential tariffs, one consumer told Fastmarkets that “it is still not enough, in our view.” The consumer added that there are significant concerns over the higher costs of raw material and production in Europe.

5. Sustainability pricing is front-of-mind for full value chain

Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important focus for OEMs, so expectations of further restrictions – or incentives – around the carbon intensity of batteries have meant that discussions about sustainable or “green” premiums were common at the conference.

Many participants still said, however, that they felt the industry was a long way from such prices being widely implemented.

Discussions about the trade-offs involved in the production of sustainable materials were dominated by beliefs that end-users must be willing to pay the additional costs involved.

“In order for us to produce green material, we need to be confident that consumers are willing to cover the additional cost for us to remain competitive,” one producer told Fastmarkets.

One cathode active material (CAM) producer noted their belief that the lack of definition for sustainability within the industry “remains a significant bottleneck.”

Premiums linked to sustainability are not umcommon in raw materials markets, with the aluminium and steel markets proving their potential.

Some consumers at the conference said that there was a willingness to pay an additional premium for green material but, as one consumer said: “We also still have to remain competitive.”

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

The post Five things we learned at the European Battery Raw Materials Conference 2023 appeared first on Fastmarkets.

She encouraged producers and other market participants to invest in and pursue greater and more transparent reporting of emissions and to abide by environmental, social, governance (ESG) standards.

Circulor’s services enable companies to gain visibility into their supply chains to demonstrate responsible sourcing, improve their ESG performance, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and manage supply chain risks.

“We need the data and transparency, not only to provide to [original equipment manufacturers] but also to customers,” Carey said, adding that transparency offers a “marketing opportunity” for those who pursue it.

Panel participants agreed that early transparency could create a marketing opportunity, by helping to differentiate suppliers’ materials and appeal to customers, and could help to supplement legislative drives that might require investment in ESG-compliant technology.

Speaking on the same panel, lithium producer SQM’s director of external affairs, Stefan Debruyne, re-emphasized the importance of transparency in ESG reporting, and pointed out that end-consumers need to be informed about why they should value particular ESG-considerate products.

It was unlikely that governments would tell people to buy ESG-compliant electric vehicles (EVs) without showing them why, he said.

The EU approved its updated battery directive targeting circular battery production in June 2023. This proposed the introduction of a battery passport to track batteries’ ESG effects across the supply chain.

While battery passports will be required from 2027, panelists emphasized that early gathering – and the potential sharing – of information on the topic should be carried out before that time.

The information could be gathered, with some of it made available to the public, on the supply chain and ESG footprint for batteries in a number of categories, including those for EVs.

“I think we’re still in the early stages [of introducing transparency],” Carey said.

Alice Lim, head of corporate sustainability at the London Metal Exchange, stressed the importance of early transparency, saying that the exchange has already introduced its own passport system to foster transparency in the metal supply chain, stretching from BRM to base metals.

“The really big push from the LME’s side is the transparency… Having good, accurate data from the get-go is essential,” she said. “You can’t reduce what you can’t measure.” She also said that transparency is the precursor for emissions reductions.

The marketability of ESG-compliant commodities was already being seen in a number of sectors, including steelmaking, where a premium market has emerged for steel with low CO2 emissions.

Fastmarkets most recently assessed its green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe, on September 14 at €100-250 ($107-267) per tonne, unchanged since August 24.

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

The post Supply chain, emissions transparency a ‘marketing opportunity’ already: European Battery Raw Materials 2023 appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The rollout of high-manganese nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries is expected to particularly increase demand and regional market deficits could even emerge sooner than 2028, in particular in the US, Searle said.

Despite higher input costs for non-Chinese manganese sulfate, the introduction of legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU’s battery directive has provided demand for non-Chinese production.

“IRA regulations in the US aimed at reducing reliance on China in favor of domestic and FTA-linked critical mineral supply will significantly tighten the supply pool for US battery producers in the coming years,” Searle said.

“Significant manganese sulfate processing expansion will be required outside of China to ensure EVs qualify for the full tax credit,” he added.

Supply-demand expectations for battery-grade manganese sulfate, sometimes described as the “forgotten battery raw material,” will be an important topic of discussion at next week’s European Battery Raw Materials Conference, with a presentation and roundtable dedicated to potential future market developments.

Fastmarkets calculates that China was responsible for 89% of manganese sulfate production in 2022.

As with the majority of other battery raw materials whose production is overwhelmingly concentrated in China, geopolitical tensions and new legislative drives towards securing supply chains have seen a crop of new manganese sulfate projects emerge outside of China.

But despite progress, a number of questions loom over the new producers and Western market, relating not only to how demand and supply might shift, but the potential for major price volatility.

Renewed concerns about the environmental, social and governance standards and transparency of Chinese production have proved a boon to non-Chinese producers.

Questions also persist around the effect of the emergence of new battery chemistries such as lithium-manganese-iron phosphate (LMFP) batteries.

“We are seeing significant attention and investment in LMFP technologies with a view to improve the chemistry that holds the greatest market share in the Chinese market,” Searle said in July.

Another potential future development could be the commercial establishment of high lithium, manganese (HLM) cathode active materials (CAM).

Secure your place at the European Battery Raw Materials Conference 2023

Find out more about what’s ahead for the manganese sulfate market and hear actionable insights directly from experts deeply embedded in the market at this year’s European Battery Raw Materials Conference 2023.
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The post Manganese sulfate market to switch to deficit by 2028 despite new capacity | European Battery Raw Materials 2023 appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Market feedback received during the consultation was in support of Fastmarkets implementing this change for the metals listed above.

This consultation sought to ensure that Fastmarkets’ methodologies continue to reflect the physical market under assessment.

The updated specification of the price are as follows:

MB-BI-0001 Bismuth 99.99% Bi min, in-whs Rotterdam, $/lb
Quality: Ingot. Bi 99.99%, no other elements specified
Quantity: Min 1 tonne
Location: Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release, within ten calendar days
Unit: USD/lb
Payment terms: Cash, other payment terms normalized
Publication: Twice weekly. Wednesday and Friday 2-3pm London time
Notes: Original producer packaging

MB-CD-0001 Cadmium 99.95% min, cif global ports, cents/lb 
Quality: Sticks or ingots. Cd 99.95%, no other elements specified
Quantity: Min 10 tonnes
Location: CIF global port basis
Timing: Prompt release, within ten calendar days
Unit: US cents per lb
Payment terms: Cash, other payment terms normalized
Publication: Twice weekly. Wednesday and Friday 2-3pm London

MB-CD-0002 Cadmium 99.99% min, cif global ports, cents/lb 
Quality: Sticks or ingots. Cd 99.99%, no other elements specified
Quantity Min 10 tonnes
Location: cif global port basis
Timing: Prompt release, within ten calendar days
Unit: US cents per lb
Payment terms: Cash, other terms normalized
Publication: Twice weekly. Wednesday and Friday 2-3pm London time

MB-IN-0002 Indium 99.99%, in-whs Rotterdam, $/kg 
Quality: In: 99.99%, no other elements specified. Ingots, usually between 0.5kg and 3.5 kg; also 10 kg ingots
Quantity: Min 100kg
Location: In-whs Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release, within ten calendar days
Unit: USD/kg
Payment terms: Cash, other terms normalized
Publication: Twice-weekly. Wednesday and Friday 2-3pm London time
Notes: Original producer wooden cases

MB-SE-0002 Selenium 99.5% Se min, in-whs Rotterdam, $/lb 
Quality: Powder of minus 200 mesh or granules sizing 1-5 mm. Se 99.5% min, no other elements specified
Quantity: Min 250kg (+/-2%)
Location: In-whs Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release, within ten calendar days
Unit: USD/lb
Payment terms: Cash, other terms normalized
Publication: Twice-weekly. Wednesday and Friday 2-3pm London time
Notes: Original producer packaging, normally 25kg net

MB-TE-0001 Tellurium 99.9-99.99% Te min, in-whs Rotterdam, $/kg 
Quality: Ingots, sticks or powder. Te 99.9- 99.99%, no other elements specified
Quantity: Min 100 kg (+/-2%)
Location: In-whs Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release, within ten calendar days
Unit: USD/kg
Payment terms: Cash, other terms normalized
Publication: Twice-weekly. Wednesday and Friday between 2pm and 3pm London time
Notes: Original producer packaging

However, in light of the recent introduction of export controls from China and a lack of clarity as to how they will affect gallium, germanium metal and dioxide market dynamics, Fastmarkets continues to monitor the typical terms of trade in these markets and continue an informal consultation on this over coming weeks.

MB-GA-0001 Gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs Rotterdam, $/kg 
Quality: Ingot. Ga: 99.99% min, no other elements specified
Quantity: Min 100kg (+/- 2%)
Location: In-whs Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release
Unit: USD/kg
Payment terms: Cash, other terms normalized
Publication: Twice weekly. Wednesday and Friday 2-3pm London time
Notes: Packed in plastic sleeves, original producer cases

MB-GER-0003 Germanium 99.999% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam, $/kg 
Quality: Min 100 kg (+/- 2%)
Quality: Ingot. Ge 99.999%, no other elements specified
Location: In-whs Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release
Unit: USD/kg
Payment: Cash, other payment terms normalized
Publication: Twice-weekly. Wednesday and Friday between 2pm and 3pm London time
Notes: Packed in plastic sleeves, original producer cases

MB-GER-0001 Germanium dioxide, in-whs China, $/kg 
Quality: GeO2 99.99 % min, Ge 69 % approx. White powder
Quantity: Min 100 kg (+/- 2%)
Location: In-whs China
Timing: Prompt release
Unit: USD/kg
Payment terms: Cash, other payment terms normalized
Publication: Twice-weekly. Wednesday and Friday between 2pm and 3pm London time
Notes: Original producer cases, normally 25kg each

To provide feedback on this decision, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to minor metals prices. Please contact Sayaka Kurata and Solomon Cefai by email at pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Sayaka Kurata and Solomon Cefai, re: minor metals.”

To see all of Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology. 

The post Clarification of delivery timing for minor metals specifications appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The company’s materials drive battery performance enhancements in consumer electronics devices and are intended to power electric vehicles (EVs), starting with the Mercedes-Benz G-Class series.

In an interview with Fastmarkets, Yushin delved into the developments that brought the company’s NCS into viability for silicon-dominant anodes and what the material offers EV and battery makers.

Yushin believes that the technology could help relieve supply tightness and the geographical disparity in the production of another key battery raw material (BRM) – graphite.

Unlike the bulk of the world’s graphite, Sila’s NCS is made in the US, meaning it is aligned with the renewed Western impetus to secure the supply chains of more raw materials – especially those critical for the energy transition.

While silicon and its compounds have previously been used in limited quantities in anodes, it is more recent developments that have allowed the material to be used in higher concentrations in anodes – overcoming challenges related to battery degradation especially.

What NCS offers

By offering a higher capacity compared with traditionally used graphite, NCS-based electrodes are thinner, reducing lithium-ion diffusion distance and helping to yield cost benefits, Yushin explained.

The technology also offers higher energy density (Titan Silicon boosts energy density by up to 40%) and faster charging compared with today’s graphite-based lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), he said.

Yushin calculated that, at their limit, the cost of graphite-anode LIBs will remain around $100/kWh at the pack level.

Sila’s next-generation NCS anodes and cathodes, Yushin said, “will help reduce LIB pack costs down to $50/kWh, making it a suitable technology to power the booming EV market.”

Fastmarkets’ cell cost modeling team estimates that the anode typically makes up 10-15% of the total cost of a typical nickel–cobalt–manganese (NCM) cell, with the cathode contributing 50-60%.

“While improvements to the anode are important for fast-charging, lifetime and general performance, it is advancements on the cathode side (as well as bringing down cathode raw material prices) that will really drive down overall cell cost. Improving manufacturing processes and minimizing waste in gigafactories will also play a large role,” Muthu Krishna, Fastmarkets cell cost modeler, said.

“The cell energy density depends on both the anode and the cathode, mostly their capacities and their electrochemical potentials,” Yushin said.

“The ultra-high capacity NCS, in combination with next-generation cathodes, will enable a two times increase in energy density… This means 50% fewer cells would be needed for the LIB pack to offer roughly the same energy,” he said.

The size and the price of an LIB pack would similarly be around 50% smaller, according to Yushin.

“Note that the same next-generation cathodes cannot offer major performance improvements when coupled with graphite anodes,” he said.

A new technology

These developments have led to a major shift in how silicon-based anodes are perceived.

“A decade ago, due to the scientific and technological difficulties overcoming numerous technical challenges, most people in the industry didn’t believe silicon anodes could become reality soon,” Yushin said.

“The main question we hear now is how fast we can scale up Titan Silicon production to meet the TWh-level demands,” he added.

Over the past years, some leading battery companies began introducing small amounts of Japan- or China-produced silicon oxide material into graphite anodes to slightly improve LIB energy density or rate while avoiding excessive degradation.

However, the idea of silicon-dominant anodes was out of the question, Yushin said.

“Now, Titan Silicon can be used in excess of [50% by weight], or replace graphite in the anodes entirely,” he said.

The life cycle of Sila NCS anode automotive cells is similar to that of graphite-based automotive cells or automotive cells comprising graphite, or doped with small amounts of silicon oxide, he said.

Sila is not the only company to see promise in silicon-based materials for anodes.

In 2020, EV maker Tesla announced it would use increased quantities of silicon in its battery anodes versus the prevalent graphite.

Notably, the company said at the time it would be using silicon metal rather than the costlier engineered silicon materials to make its anodes.

At the time, participants in both the silicon metal and graphite markets minimized the impact this might have on the respective markets.

The relatively dispersed global production of silicon helps make it an appealing alternative to other anode materials. Between the US and Canada, North American silicon metal output is around 200,000 tonnes per year, Fastmarkets estimates.

Supply challenges

Despite overall positivity, Yushin did identify a particularly daunting looming challenge for the uptake of silicon, and BRMs generally – supply.

“The new challenges are all about supply – specifically supply from geographically diverse regions,” he said.

A majority of the world’s silicon is produced in China, although this majority is much less significant than it is for the production of other critical BRMs, including graphite and cobalt, which China also refines a global majority of.

Western companies are moving to fill this production gap. In an interview with Fastmarkets earlier this year, Sinova Global shared that it will produce silicon in North America to help fulfill additional demand for silicon, including for battery anodes.

Yushin pointed to legislative action, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), that demonstrates the US and the West is “waking up” to the fact that a “massive percentage” of the precursors of all the input materials to batteries make their way into the West from China.

“When you think about battery technology as the path to replacing fossil fuels and oil and gas, we don’t want to be setting ourselves up to be dependent on foreign nations for our critical supply for our energy resources,” he said.

While welcoming the economic incentives introduced by the IRA to produce precursor, raw materials and eventually electrode materials for LIBs domestically and in free trade countries, Yushin pointed to continued obstacles in securing capital and the regulatory process to establish new factories and mines.

“Despite having many natural resources in the US, there are still regulatory hurdles around things like building up new mines, for example,” he said.

“From the economic standpoint, we may also need to consider access to large capital and low interest rates to stimulate strategically important investments in both raw materials and battery material processing, as China already offers these to Chinese battery-related industries,” he added.

“We still have to get to a place where it’s easier to secure capital and build those factories and mines because otherwise, the supply chain really isn’t going to change,” he said.

Previous Fastmarkets reporting found that there remains confusion around the eligibility of materials to qualify for the financial incentives the IRA offers, specifically concerning the material’s origins.

A lack of clarity has slowed IRA-linked investments, according to Abigail Wulf, vice president and director of the Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) Center for Critical Minerals Strategy.

Keep up to date with the latest news and insights on our dedicated battery materials market page.

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Fastmarkets’ price assessment for germanium 99.99% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam, $ per kg, will be renamed “germanium 99.999% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam, $ per kg.”

The quality will be amended to “Ingot, Ge 99.999%, no other elements specified.” It was formerly “Ingot, Ga 99.999%, no other elements specified.”

The specified quality for Fastmarkets’ price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs China, yuan per kg, will be amended to “Ge 99.999% min” from “Ge 99.99% min.”

This will standardize the specified metal purity of the two assessments in line with Minor Metals Trade Association (MMTA) guidance, at Ge 99.999%, and in line with our methodology, to remedy inconsistencies between the purities identified in the price name and the specified quality of the material.

Fastmarkets’ specifications for the two assessments will now read as follows:

MB-GER-0003 Germanium 99.999% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam, $ per kg
Quantity: Min 100kg (+/- 2%)
Quality: Ingot. Ge 99.999%, no other elements specified
Location: in-whs Rotterdam
Timing: Prompt release
Unit: USD per kg
Payment: Cash, other payment terms normalized
Publication: Twice-weekly. Wednesday and Friday, between 2pm and 3pm London time
Notes: Packed in plastic sleeves, original producer cases.

MB-GER-0004 Germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs China, yuan per kg
Quality: Ingots with no specific dimension or weight. Ge 99.999% min, 50ohm/cm; no other elements specified
Quantity: Min 50kg
Location: in-whs China
Unit: CNY per kg
Payment terms: Cash, other payment terms normalized
Publication: Weekly. Wednesday, by 3pm London time.

To provide feedback on these prices, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these prices, please contact Solomon Cefai and Sayaka Kurata by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading: “FAO: Solomon Cefai and Sayaka Kurata re: germanium metal.”

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, go to: https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/methodology.

The post Amendment to Fastmarkets’ germanium metal specifications appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Further developments in prevailing battery chemistries and increasing use in non-NMC chemistries – as well as geopolitical shifts as western countries attempt to wean themselves off Chinese raw materials – will likely lead to a shift in supply-demand dynamics for the metal.

Due to these factors, Fastmarkets has forecast a deficit for the metal by 2030, with a supply forecast at 300,300 tonnes – manganese contained – versus demand at 374,814 tonnes. This covers demand for both electric vehicle (EV) use and energy storage systems.

In this final part of Fastmarkets’ three in-depth features on manganese sulfate, we delve into the sector’s looming developments.

The first feature looked at expected market volatility, while the second covered growing focus on the metal.

New uses

Changes in attitudes toward battery chemistries have resulted in uncertainty for many of the BRM markets, with mixed forecasts of both growth and declines in demand.

Battery grade manganese sulfate is used for a number of seemingly promising developments in BRM chemistries outside its prevailing use in NMC batteries.

One such potential future development could be the commercial establishment of high lithium, manganese (HLM) cathode active materials (CAM) and the use of manganese in lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) batteries.

Critical materials technology company Umicore is on the cutting edge of the process to commercialize HLM. The producer started developing manganese-rich technologies more than ten years ago.

A spokesperson told Fastmarkets that the company sees HLM as “an excellent alternative” to other existing design-to-cost technologies such as LFP, because the battery technology  is “cost-competitive, has a higher energy density and offers better recycling capabilities.”

The company’s investment in HLM complements Umicore’s portfolio of NMC battery materials because market participants are prompted by BRM prices and supply chain concerns to explore other chemistries.

Compared with other metals in the NCM suite of chemistries, manganese sulfate stands out as a more affordable ingredient.

On the London Metal Exchange, the nickel cash official price was most recently at $21,392.50 per tonne on Thursday July 27.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam was $16.50-18.00 per lb ($36,376-39,683 per tonne) on Friday, unchanged from the previous session but down from its 2022 high of $39.75-40.50 per lb on May 3.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for manganese sulfate 32% Mn min, battery grade, exw mainland China was 5,000-5,650 yuan ($699-789) per tonne on July 27.

In recent years, developments in existing battery chemistry have moved toward relatively reduced consumption of battery grade manganese sulfate, Fastmarkets heard.

“The dominating cathode formulation outside China is currently NCM material, with a trend of increasing the nickel content – to boost battery performance – and reducing the cobalt and manganese content,” Madelein Todd, chief marketing officer for Manganese Metal Company (MMC), said to Fastmarkets.

MMC describes itself as the only producer of high-grade manganese metal outside of China. It operates in South Africa, where it produces 28,000 tonnes per year of manganese metal, which is high in purity and selenium-free. Its manganese metal is 99.9% Mn (Fastmarkets prices 99.7% material). A significant portion of its manganese metal is sold to NCM producers.

Todd expects cost pressure to potentially increase demand for alternative chemistries, such as high-manganese cathodes, including through lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries outside China, where it is currently prevailing.

“Given pressure from cost, LFP will inevitably also feature out of China over the next few years,” Todd said.

With the addition of manganese, lithium iron manganese phosphate can be produced with a higher energy density, helping mitigate the chemistry’s relatively low energy density – one of its key shortfalls compared to NMC batteries.

“Reducing battery cost pressures will be most accelerated when high-manganese cathode materials reach commercialization – at present they have just left the laboratory stage of development, but hold very good promise,“ Todd said.

Umicore told Fastmarkets that the growth of LFP (and LMFP) outside of China will likely be possible in the medium term, and that in the meantime HLM could provide an appealing alternative.

“LFP requires a different manufacturing production process and supply chain… building capacity outside of China would come with serious cost considerations and take some time, likely beyond 2026-2027,” the company’s spokesperson said.

Progress is being made, according to Fastmarkets research.

“We are seeing significant attention and investment in LMFP technologies with a view to improve the chemistry that holds the greatest market share in the Chinese market,” Fastmarkets analyst Rob Searle said.

“This could lead to higher adoption of the nickel- and cobalt-free chemistry in western markets where longer-range, higher-performance vehicles remain the preference,” he added.

Speaking to Fastmarkets earlier this year, James Fraser, vice president commercial, Euro Manganese, also identified that increased LMFP demand would impact the manganese sulfate market.

“I believe over the next couple of years, we will see more and more announcements of manganese rich chemistries from battery makers for NMC batteries [and] also we expect to see LMFP playing a bigger part,” Fraser said. “It will take a little while for this to translate into concrete demand, but it will come.”

Localization

Commercial production of manganese sulfate is currently overwhelmingly concentrated in China, posing a potential restraint for the material’s use, despite its relative abundance.

The trend to establish a non-Chinese supply of the material will likely be boosted by recent legislation, including the European Union’s battery directive – which was adopted in June. The directive targets carbon footprint reporting, with EV batteries, light means of transport batteries and rechargeable industrial batteries (with a capacity of over 2kWh) required to carry a label that reflects their carbon footprint.

“We will be able to offer high purity sulfate material, with traceability and the highest compliance standards, in 2.5 to 3 years – by then cathode precursor production will have evolved more in EU and North America, which are the target markets for our non-Chinese offering of manganese sulfate,” said Todd.

Chinese manganese producers, Fastmarkets has found, are not as established as non-Chinese producers when it comes to disclosing carbon emissions, providing the latter with opportunities to establish comparably strong reporting standards.

Additionally, manganese sulfate may benefit from better recycling and a more circular supply chain, as advocated for by legislation in the West.

Umicore believes that its HLM CAM is more appealing for recycling than LFPs.

“In LFP, recycling iron and phosphate is not economically valuable,” the company’s spokesperson said.

Fastmarkets believes that increasing global demand for the BRM – and the current concentration of the material’s production in China – will support non-Chinese production in the future.

“From 2025, we expect tightening supply and scouring regulations to lead to projects starting up in Europe, the US and Australia,” Searle said.

This article is part three of three in our spotlight on sulfate series, focused on manganese sulfate. Read the other articles here.

The post Spotlight on sulfate: Battery chemistry developments and geographical onshoring to shape manganese sulfate sector appeared first on Fastmarkets.

In this series, which will comprise of three parts, Fastmarkets will explore the current market dynamics in manganese sulfate markets, as well as future applications and battery chemistries.

Like many battery raw materials, manganese metal (which Fastmarkets prices as electrolytic manganese flake) consumption has historically been dominated by the alloy steel sector rather than lithium-ion batteries. Part of the reason that battery grade manganese does not often dominate discussions in the battery raw materials market is due to its apparent abundance of supply, though it is highly concentrated in China.

Part of the reason that manganese does not often dominate discussions in battery raw materials is due to its apparent abundance of supply, though it is highly concentrated in China.

Other regions are expected to see production growth, but China’s dominant position is likely to remain unchanged by the end of the decade.

There is a growing expectation though, though due to complexities around production and significant growth in demand that regional price volatility could quickly emerge.

Furthermore, although manganese is largely abundant, not all of the product currently mined or refined is suitable for battery grade material.

“[The manganese ore] needs to be soluble, preferably a carbonate ore,” Euro Manganese commercial vice president James Fraser said when speaking to Fastmarkets earlier this year, “or else it needs to be roasted to make it soluble (as is the case for most oxide ores).”

“Most ore is in oxide form; carbonate ores are much rarer,” Fraser added.

Tight availability of appropriate ore is not the only challenge facing the manganese sulfate industry though, with participants highlighting the challenge around refining/processing bottlenecks outside of China.

“Outside of China, very few countries produce manganese sulfate, and currently only one country has battery grade manganese sulfate production,” Manganese Metal Company (MMC) chief marketing office Madelein Todd said.

This is evidenced by data from the International Energy Association in its recent report on critical raw materials, which states that 97% of battery grade manganese sulfate is produced in China.

Production routes

Considering these potential production bottlenecks, participants highlighted the multiple methods of production available to producers.

Manganese ore and manganese metal can all be used as a feedstock in the production of manganese metal. However, each requires different approaches.

From ore, the manganese is leached, purified and then crystallized in high purity crystals which can then be used in the process of manufacturing manganese sulfate.

“Alternatively, the ore is put through electrowinning by which electrolysis is used to extract the metal from a purified leach solution and shipped to a pre-cursor maker, which would dissolve it in sulfuric acid,” Todd said.

Instead of using manganese ore though, sulfate producers can use manganese metal. Sulfate producers can take manganese metal and dissolve this in sulfuric acid to form manganese sulfate which can be crystalised.

This route involves less processing and can also result in higher purity of material, according to sources.

However, both methods are tried and proven as effective in producing manganese sulfate, and as the market develop, Todd believes the choice of feedstock will not be important among consumers focused on the end result.

“The feedstock will not be a concern. The quality will be the same from both sources,” Todd said. “By the time the manganese has been crystalized it does not matter.”

The process of making metal as an intermediate product can help purification.

“However, proponents of the first method like the elimination of the electrowinning stage to reduce power costs,” Fraser said. “However, this often comes at the expense of purity and any savings on power costs can quickly be outweighed by additional costs of the reagents needed to achieve the desired purity levels.”

Producing metal as an intermediate product provides the opportunity for further versatility for end use products as battery chemistries and consumer requirements evolve, according to Fraser.

This is particularly valuable given evolving approaches to battery chemistries.

“While there is an assumption at present that the desired form of manganese is sulphate, there are others who are looking at different forms of manganese – such as metal, oxide, carbonate or even nitrate. Working from metal gives us the option to adapt our process to deliver these products,“ he said. 

Selenium concern

Although manganese metal can be used in the production of sulfate, there are significant concerns around the potential risks of selenium and its impacts on sulfate.

Selenium is often used in the production of manganese metal in order to reduce power consumption and operating costs, though this method is highly concentrated in China, where the majority of global manganese metal is currently produced.

Manganese sulfate products containing selenium are often not desired within Western markets, sources said.

“Selenium is very toxic and gives off a garlic distinctive aroma in the lab during dissolution,” Todd said, adding “If you start with 99.7% chemistry manganese flake then you need to remove the selenium.”

However, it is difficult process to remove the selenium, but it carries a risk if it is not removed.

“If it ended up in manganese sulphate destined for EV batteries, even very small quantities could cause significant safety-related and other technical problems, such as short-circuits,” Fraser said.

Euro Manganese is looking to produce selenium-free metal at its Chvaletice project in Czechia.

There are reports that some consumers of manganese sulfate are happy to take material containing selenium for small-scale batteries, but this is not widespread.

Any manganese products containing selenium require an additional processing stage to remove the selenium, which can then be stored in an approved hazardous waste facility, adding to costs.

Historically, manganese flake has been the dominant method of production of manganese sulfate, but issues around selenium have seen participants switch to the use of metal or ore as a feedstock.

“Flake was dominant – it was dissolved and crystallized, but it was not always purified properly. But now ore is currently the dominant route to sulfate production as it is less expensive,” Todd said.

Manganese flake prices are largely unimpacted by such developments, given that steel consumption continues to make up the vast majority of overall demand for the material.

Instead, volatility in manganese metal prices have typically been related to supply factors.

In the second half of 2021, manganese flake prices increased markedly, to reach an all-time high.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for manganese 99.7% electrolytic manganese flake, fob China reached $7,000-7,150 per tonne on October 29, 2021. The price was up by 187.3% from $2,450-2,520 per tonne on May 7, 2021.

This price increase was credited to supply concerns and production cuts among major production hubs to help meet environmental targets.

On the other hand, manganese sulfate prices have historically been heavily impacted by fluctuations in manganese flake prices.

In 2022, as manganese flake prices softened, manganese sulfate prices moved largely in parallel.

On March 17, 2022, in the first pricing session of Fastmarkets’ manganese sulfate 32% Mn min, battery grade, exw mainland China price assessment, prices were assessed at 9,000-10,000 yuan per kg. One year later, on March 16, 2022, this price had fallen to 5,800-6,300 yuan per kg, marking a decline of 36.32%.

Between March 18, 2022 and March 17, 2023, the price for manganese 99.7% electrolytic manganese flake, fob China fell from $3,500-4,000 per tonne to $2,150-2,200 per tonne – a 42% decline.

This article is part three of three in our spotlight on sulfate series, focused on manganese sulfate. Read the other articles here.

The post Spotlight on sulfate: Volatility expected in manganese sulfate amid supply and processing capacity bottlenecks appeared first on Fastmarkets.