Despite recent improvements, some ports – particularly Tarragona, on Spain’s east coast – are still experiencing vessel discharge delays of up to 10 days, while back in October the waiting time was even higher.

That has been part of a domino effect, sparked as deliveries from the country’s main suppliers did not arrive at the expected time, as loading delays among key export partners have affected many on the supply side – with most of Spain’s imports drawn from either the Black Sea or South America.

In Brazil, corn has had to compete with a huge soybean export program which has strained the country’s own export logistics as it simultaneously copes with the twin dynamics of its biggest ever corn and soybean crops.

In the Black Sea, the Ukrainian export grain deal was stopped in mid-July, when Russia pulled out of the four-way agreement with a huge number of ships still stranded in the queue waiting for inspection at Istanbul.

Meanwhile, generally high traffic in Romania – as the country stepped in to export both its own corn and Ukrainian stocks – meant it too suffered delays to loadings.

That all led to a situation where corn started to arrive to Spain later than had been expected – and generally arrived simultaneously rather than in a managed flow.

And, even though the significant delays started back in September, the consequences are still evident.

View our corn prices

Domestic outlook

At the same time, internal demand for feed grains was already slowing down amid a decline in livestock feed, in a move that led to slow discharge rates and slower deliveries to the domestic market.

That caused further shocks to the supply chain, as the slow pull from the internal market meant port storage remained reasonably full and further limits the capacity to unload the new vessels arriving.

For the 2023-24 marketing year, the USDA has already predicted a drop in cattle and pork production in Spain amid a decline in projections for exports outside the European Union and the sector’s relatively high production costs, which means potentially lower demand for feeds.

Spain is the biggest European grain importer, with annual imports of around 7 million tonnes of corn and 2 million of wheat on average over the last three years.

So far in the 2023-24 marketing year, corn imports have reached 2.7 million tonnes, which is almost 39% down compared to the same stage a year ago, although at the same time feed wheat imports have been higher at 1.97 million tonnes.

That is almost double the volume imported at the same time last year, according to the European Commission data, and comes amid heavy falls in wheat prices following last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine.

View our grains and oilseeds prices

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Rumors have been circulating among market participants that Russia could be poised to make a return to the grain deal initiative from October 5, after pulling out of the deal back in July 2023.

The deal had originally been signed between Ukraine, the United Nations and Turkey, with a mirror deal signed between Russia, the UN and Turkey, but was allowed to lapse when Russia declined to resign.

The trade rumors, most of which seem to come from Russia-based sources, expect Turkey will guarantee the safety of vessels operating in the Black Sea and, as such, will allow unhindered export of grains and sunflower from both Ukraine and Russia.

More controversially, the rumors also suggest a guarantee that the export of petrol, oil and lubricants from Russia would be included, in return for exports of the same products from the EU into three Ukrainian deep sea ports.

Also, key Russian demands for readmission to the international electronic banking system, SWIFT, and a guarantee of Russian fertilizer exports via Ukrainian ports has been dropped by Russian authorities amid acceptance that there is no possibility of implementing such an arrangement.

Along with that, it was also said that Turkey will process payments for Russian sunseeds and grains through its two state banks, with a 12% commission.

Doubts

However, trade sources spoken to by Fastmarkets Agriculture also suggested that such reports were untrue and claimed there is no reason or incentive for Ukraine to return to the grain deal and give control over the flow of exports back to Turkey, the UN and especially Russia.

Ukraine’s use of marine and aerial drones against Russian ports and shipping in the mainland and in the disputed territory of Crimea has proved a consistent irritant to Russian naval forces and spurred more confidence.

On the back of that, Ukraine declared the opening of its own humanitarian corridor – allowing a wider selection exports than simply grains – in August, initially enabling ships that had been stuck in port since the Russian invasion began to leave.

Since the opening of the humanitarian corridor, eleven vessels have already arrived in Ukraine, and eight of those have left successfully, but there are more expected to enter the region soon, but trade sources expressed fears that recommitting to the grains initiative could slow building momentum.

“The UN only will put the process into frames, which nobody really needs,” a source said.

Another Ukrainian source familiar with the matter said that for now there were only talks about the current humanitarian corridor, while the UN said that for now they could only confirm that negotiations are “ongoing”.

“The UN remains determined to ensure that Ukrainian grains can be exported and reach the global market, for the sake of Ukrainian farmers and the world’s poorest people who need affordable food. These efforts continue in that regard, including through talks with the Russian Federation,” UN representatives said in response to an official request from Fastmarkets.

Trade sources also agreed that it was possible that there be negotiations underway, but still did not expect a final result to be agreed upon and certainly not within the next 24 hours.

Along with that, Russian media RIA News reported that more clarity regarding the status and continuation of the grain deal initiative may appear closer to the end of 2023, but for now, there is no significant progress.

The grain deal initiative was stopped on July 17, 2023, after Russia withdrew from the deal – although significant delays at inspection stages meant that shipments were already significantly delayed – with some ships facing months of waiting at Istanbul.

That had brought accusations from Ukrainian authorities that Russian inspection teams under the Joint Coordination Centre were effectively sabotaging the arrangement by holding up their approvals for as long as possible.

But on August 10, Ukrainian naval forces opened a humanitarian corridor for commercial vessels, with few vessels that had been stuck since the Russian invasion leaving Ukrainian ports in August, before the arrival of eight vessels to load iron ore and grains in September.

Click here to read more grains and oilseeds market insights

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Even if the agreement — signed by Ukraine and Russia and backed by the United Nations and Turkey — is extended again beyond the current deadline of July 18, exporters fear the risks and costs of loading grains are too great, trade sources said on Friday June 23. Russia has repeatedly said it will not extend the grain corridor agreement beyond July 18.

Although the deal was extended for another 60 days in May, inspections have been very slow, and the Russian inspectors have been accused of deliberately slowing the approval process.

Most inspections have been on outbound vessels, with 52 vessels capable of carrying 2.23 million metric tonnes of agricultural products cleared to leave Ukrainian Black Sea waters since the date of the extension.

Inbound inspections have been at least twice as slow, with a maximum of one cleared per day recently.

As of June 23, there were 34 vessels with total deadweight of 1.86 million tonnes awaiting inbound inspection. Since June 4, no new vessels have been registered by the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) — which facilitates the implementation of the agreement — other than a single vessel under the World Food Program, sponsored by the UN to help countries in need of food.

Should the inspections for inbound vessels continue at the pace of one per day, not all of the ships in the queue will be able to pass inspection.

At the same time, there is confusion regarding the inspection rules. Although up to three vessels have been cleared on some days, on other days, none has been cleared. No reason for the inconsistency has been provided.

“I know one of Russia’s JCC arguments is that a lot of vessels have shipped to the EU, which has no food security problems, but there are many vessels reviewed/ready to ship to Africa, Bangladesh, etc., where food security is an issue,” a trader said. “Why don’t they allow vessel registrations for such countries?”

All of this makes planning impossible and creates complications in trading, market sources said.

The shift to alternative transport routes

Even if the grain corridor deal is extended with Russia’s participation in mid-July, market participants are skeptical about any improvement in the pace and scheduling of inspections. This is prompting them to explore alternative routes such as Danube ports and train or truck transport, sources said.

“We still have some operations in deep-sea terminals (moving out grains already at terminals)… Otherwise, we no longer have a role in the deep sea, as it is costing us too much money and we can’t really anticipate any cost,” a second trader said.

This trader’s company continues to work from shallow-water Ukrainian ports along the Danube, which many other traders are doing, he said.

This switch in export routes is evident in falling export flows through the Black Sea corridor — these have fallen to 43% in June from 72% in January, while the total leaving Ukraine is broadly unchanged at slightly above 4 million tonnes.

Traders are also considering the Ukrainian government’s Plan B, under which the country would continue loading from deep-sea ports without Russia’s participation in the agreement. But this would require guarantees from the UN and Turkey of safe transit.

In Russia, the chemical products group Uralkhem said it has finished work on a domestic ammonium pipeline, which means it no longer requires the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline in the Kharkov Region to be reopened.

The pipeline, which runs from the Russian region of Samara via Kharkov to Odesa on the Black Sea coast, was critically damaged in an attack on June 5. It usually transports ammonia — a raw material that is vital in the enrichment of natural fertilizers — for export. Russia had insisted on repairs to the pipeline before agreeing to an extension of the grain corridor deal.

Russia’s influence in the flow of exports from Ukrainian ports is evident in the spike in inspections in October, when it briefly pulled out of the grain corridor deal. At that time, in a matter of days, more than 40 vessels were inspected.

Russia is Ukraine’s main competitor in exports of wheat and vegetable oil. Any escalation of the conflict in the region could affect global prices.

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The Ukrainian trade has faced several simultaneous difficulties amid the ongoing war, including the grain corridor which offers only limited options for the trade despite recently being extended – as in practical terms it is only really open for spot dates and then only for vessels that have been already been inspected and cleared at the entrance.

The situation on the border with the EU is also uncertain, as, despite the bloc’s governing body extending the duty-free import of Ukrainian goods, five bordering countries are continuing to uphold their current temporary ban on imports.

On top of that, the permitted transit through those borders also does not currently work well, with trade sources reporting a very slow checking process at the borders.

That all comes as world grain prices have been falling consistently since June 2023 – largely in line with the establishment of the grain corridor deal – meaning that to stay competitive Ukrainian traders have had to further reduce their prices compared with other origins, and thus also pay less to the producer.

“Without the open access of the grain to the foreign markets there is no guarantee that the farmer will sell at an adequate price. You have the estimated cost of production and transport costs, but you also have to fit in the global market price,” Igor Mazepa, CEO and Founder of investment company Concorde Capital said during the panel.

He also said that the Ukrainian farmer receives a price of $70-80 per tonne lower compared to the levels paid for grains in Romanian ports, a level that is also around a third of the current costs of production.

“With low prices, high logistic costs, and no forward sales, the product cost of production is close. But if the price keeps falling, for some farms the price will drop below the cost of production, which already was the case last year,” Maria Osyka, agrarian investments director of NCH, told delegates.

Corn and wheat prices

The prices on CPT basis for corn and wheat have already dropped below the levels seen in June 2022, before the corridor was opened.

Thus, buying ideas for corn in the ports around the Danube and Odesa currently stand at a $165-175 per tonne range, compared with $195-200 per tonne seen a year ago at around the same dates.

Milling 11.5% wheat prices are now seen at $180-182 per tonne CPT Danube ports, while year-ago trades were heard at $205 per tonne for the same basis.

This comes as the production costs were said to be around the same as last year or only slightly lower because fertilizer prices have dropped.

The costs of production are highly variable depending on the region, the inputs and fertilizers used, but as an indication, trade sources estimate that for corn it can be in the range from around $150 per tonne to $175 per tonne and in the range from $148 to $195 per tonne for milling wheat.

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The Commission has implemented a ban on the import of key agriculture products from Ukraine, including wheat, corn, rapeseeds and sunflower seeds to the five so-called frontline EU bloc members – Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia – from May 2 to June 5.

But for the other EU member states, the Ukraine-origin agriculture products are free for circulation and import. The frontlines countries remain open for export to other EU countries or outside the bloc.

“In parallel, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have committed to lift their unilateral measures on wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed and any other products coming from Ukraine,” the statement said.

The Commission is ready to reimpose preventive measures after the expiration period on June 5 if the “exceptional” situation continues, it also said.

“While addressing concerns of farmers in those member states neighboring Ukraine, the measures uphold the EU’s strong commitment to support Ukraine and preserve its capabilities to export its grains which are critical to feed the world and keep food prices down, in the face of the huge challenges posed by the unprovoked Russian aggression,” the statement also said.

Prior to that, the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee agreed last week to extend the suspension of EU import duties on Ukrainian exports of agriculture products, processed products, fruits and vegetables for another year to support the country’s economy during the war with Russia.

But the extension is yet to be approved by the European Parliament (MEPs) – a session is scheduled over May 8-11 – and it will be also a subject for approval by the European Council.

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All inspections were suspended for 24 hours on April 11, with Russian authorities blaming their Ukrainian counterparts and representatives of the United Nations for allegedly failing to register vessels correctly.

Mostly, the Russian government used the statement as an opportunity to restate the conditions it says must be met if it is to agree to extend the grain corridor deal beyond late May – after a 60-day deadline that it has imposed on the deal has lapsed.

The context

The deal was extended in mid-March after the main signatories to the deal agreed to an extension, but while Ukraine claimed a 120-day timeframe had been agreed upon, Russia claimed they would only accept 60 days – a timeline that would bring the deal up for renegotiation by May 18.

Representatives of co-signatories Turkey and the UN welcomed the extension but notably failed to comment on the duration of the deal.

The ministry set out the five points it wants to see fulfilled, with the main demand being to reconnect the national agriculture bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the Swift electronic payment system.

That was followed by a request to restart the supply of machinery, details and services; the abolition of the insurance and re-insurance restrictions along with the reopening of port access; restoration of work to allow ammonia to flow through the “Togliatti-Odessa” pipeline; and finally the unblocking of foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies related to the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.

While the trade of grains is not affected by international sanctions, many of the above restrictions were imposed in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while the port of Odesa – at one end of the fertilizer pipeline – has been subjected to missile and drone strikes from Russian forces.

The official note also blamed the UN and Ukraine for the stoppage of inspections, stating that vessels coming to the Bosporus had not been registered correctly and blaming Ukrainian port authorities for earning money on prioritizing vessel movements.

The statement also repeated accusations that the grain deal was not working in the way it should, stating that “the ‘Black Sea Initiative’ served and continues to serve exclusively commercial exports of Kyiv in the interests of Western countries”.

The note also said that the grain supply under the World Food Program initiative is “ridiculously” low compared to the total amount of agriculture products exported, and called the ‘Grain from Ukraine’ initiative, also arranged under the UN’s approval, “pseudo humanitarian”.

The statement also took aim at the UN’s own food and agriculture indices, claiming that they overstated price falls and wheat prices remained ‘elevated’.

“In addition, the UN members like to refer to the FAO indices, declaring a decrease in world food prices (although not by 20.5%, but by 18.6% since March 2022). At the same time, they keep silent about the fact that prices, especially for wheat, remain elevated and unaffordable for many consumers,” the note showed.

“One of the reasons is that 70% of Ukrainian exports consist of fodder corn and fodder crops,” the statement claimed.

Ukraine is typically a bigger producer of corn than wheat, with a sizeable portion of the country’s wheat crop typically classified as feed wheat.

The “normalization” of Russian agriculture products, along with fertilizer shipments, would also help to solve the issue, it argued.

“But even the gratuitous transfer of our emissions is in the poorest way due to detection and delays – so far, the only consignment remains a shipment to Malawi (20,000 tons out of 262,000 mt blocked in the ports of Latvia, Estonia, Estonia and the Netherlands),” the note also showed.

The UN responds

Stéphane Dujarric, a spokesman for the UN, said that the organization is in talks with the people who are responsible for the Swift payment system, as the UN does not have the authority to make such changes.

“In some matters, we have power – a little, but we have. This is not the right question. The Secretary General has no power over Swift; he has no power over member countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions; he has no power over insurance companies, companies for delivery. He can’t tell them what to do,” Dujarric said in response.

The facts

While Russia has continued to insist that grain and fertilizer exports are restricted amid sanctions, the country’s grain exports are moving towards record levels, with 42.6 million tonnes currently registered as exported.

That includes 34.9 million tonnes of wheat – 35% up year-on-year and already more than was exported in the entire 2019-20 marketing year, according to USDA data.

The USDA expects the country to export up to 45 million tonnes of wheat alone by the end of the marketing year.

The government does not release official data for Russian fertilizers for now, but mirror customs data for the main importers shows that India increased its 2022 fertilizer imports threefold compared to 2021.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s imports had declined by 13% compared to 2021 – in part down to high prices – but remained higher than the figure for 2020.

Despite the onset of sanctions from the US government, US imports of Russian fertilizers dropped by 18% in 2022 but remained relatively high.

The biggest destinations for Ukrainian agriculture exports via the grain deal agreement are the EU, China, Turkey and Egypt, while 2.5 million tonnes of grains have moved toward poorer developing countries.

Meanwhile, the opening of the Ukrainian ports has pushed both world grain prices and oil prices down, which was the main aim of the deal, as well as helping Ukrainian farmers who have suffered from the impact of the ongoing war.

The blockade of Ukrainian ports led to a build-up in stock – particularly after Ukraine had wrapped up its biggest-ever corn crop in the previous season – forcing farmers to discount as they attempted to stay competitive while also factoring in increased freight costs.

With most of Ukraine’s biggest ports closed, exporters had to rely on smaller ports close to the border with Romania or use road and rail freight to move volumes into the EU.

Those options carried increased costs and piled additional pressure on Ukraine’s producers as they tried to compensate for the increased costs.

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The wide expectation is that the phenomenon will bring drier and hotter weather to the continent, although thanks to the rainy conditions that have dominated the last few seasons, soil moisture levels are said to be good across most of the country for now.

The market is confident there’ll be a return to more typical production levels.

Nine of the ten driest periods during June-November windows on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Niño years, with a number of severe droughts in 1982, 1994, 2002, 2006 and 2015 – all associated with this pattern.

While the last three years have seen bumper crops amid above-normal rainfalls, a fourth consecutive record-breaking harvest would have been difficult to achieve in any case.

“It’s way too early to get concerned about this year’s crop, especially with the moisture profile, but the outlook is warranting some reservations about repeating production levels anywhere near what we’ve produced in the past three years,” Crundal added.

Other Australia-based sources said that 25 million tonnes would be possible, considering the same planting areas and average yields, and for the 2023-24 season, the forecast could be even higher and up to 28-30 million tonnes, according to Ole Houe, CEO of Australia-based Ikon Commodities.

All sources agreed that the weather would have to be monitored closely, especially as planting will start by April.

“It [El Niño] has been reported as starting up, but we haven’t seen anything yet… although we have been having some hot summer days, so I feel it may be on its way. We will need to keep an eye on things in the coming weeks and months leading up to planting, which is the end of April,” a local broker said.

Australia harvested its latest record crop in the 2022-23 marketing year, with government data agency Abares pegging the bumper crop at 36.6 million tonnes in its December report.

The final figure is expected in the March report.

The USDA’s estimate stands at 38 million tonnes, while industry sources have been placing this year’s final figures higher, at up to 40-41 million tonnes.

For more information on the current wheat market, take a look at our dedicated page for wheat price forecasts.

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India has recorded a strong surge in domestic wheat prices in recent days, and the government has been unwilling – or unable – to release stocks to cushion soaring prices.

That delay has only made the situation worse, with trade sources now speculating that imports would be among the possibilities now needed to regulate the internal market.

Domestic wheat prices have moved up to $390-400 per tonne in south India, as the shortage of wheat still persists in the country despite the government banning exports back in May in a bid to protect supply.

View our wheat prices here

The impact of extreme weather

That came as last year’s harvest fell well short of expectations amid drought conditions, making it hard for the government to replenish stocks which then fell below the mandatory threshold limit of 20.5 million tonnes.

Such was the impact on stock levels that some trade sources now think that the level could be well below that figure.

The expectation is that the government will release around 2 million tonnes of wheat from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) in the near future, but supply concerns within the industry remain.

“They are hand-to-mouth with stocks, and the moment they come out with the sale, they will break the numbers of buffer levels… the stocks with FCI on paper is not the real number, the stock is missing and the moment an additional 2 million tonnes is delivered [from reserves], the real number will be exposed,” Rajesh Paharia from Commodity Traders Delhi told Fastmarkets Agriculture.

He also said that while for private importers, the import tax is 40%, government purchases are duty-free and they will import whatever price is suitable and push it to calm down the local market.

“I am sure that the government will need to bring prices down to a range of 2021-22 years; otherwise, it won’t be able to procure much this season and for that, it has to increase availability in the physical market either through stock sales and/or imports and/or stock regulations,” Gaurav Jain from AgPulse Analytica said.

“And the steps need to be taken ASAP,” Jain warned.

Strength of local markets

“Local markets are very strong, there is clearly a shortage and the last year’s crop numbers are overstated, not sure if they open imports or not, (but) if you ask me, there are more chances for import than export,” a trader added.

At the same time, there were rumors among traders that India could possibly import wheat from Russia on a government-to-government basis, while back in October Russia’s state-backed news service TASS reported that India is considering the import of wheat from Russia to process it and re-sell to neighboring countries.

India is expecting a bumper wheat crop of 111-112 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, with the harvest set to start in March, but concerns remain that with current domestic prices, the government will struggle once again with its procurement service as it looks to rebuild battered stock levels.

Currently, the minimum support price (MSP) is well below current price levels, providing very little incentive to farmers who will most likely sell to the open market.

The MSP for wheat in 2023-24 is expected to increase to 2,125 rupees per quintal (the equivalent of around $260 per tonne), according to the government website.

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The harvesting update comes after the weather appeared to be favorable for most of the country despite concerns raised months ago over excessive humidity levels.

Wheat yields in Western Australia improved in December, driving the record crop, with other states also showing good results, while New South Wales (NSW) is listed as the only underperforming area.

Altogether, however, the yields are better than expected and the crop is estimated to reach up to 40 or even 41 million tonnes, local sources added, which would surpass the official 36.6 million tonnes the agriculture ministry and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate.

Logistic issues to challenge exports

Yet, sources remain skeptical about a significant increase in export potential amid the new record wheat crop, as the logistics chain has been working at close to full capacity for the past few years.

Larger investments and developments must therefore be made to improve logistics to increase Australia’s wheat export potential, sources told us.

“The harvest is going well but the southern regions likely have several weeks left [in order] to complete,” a source said, adding that the crop quality has been “better than originally expected” but that the protein profile remains lower than usual.

“We are expecting 40-41 million tonnes, but some crops have not yielded as well as they looked,” the source said, adding that the export potential would be around 28 million tonnes, slightly higher than last season.

“The number really means very little because we can’t move it out of the country – our logistics chain becomes full at 35 million tonnes, so anything more is just stuff that can ship in September, October, or November (if that), [which] of course impacts the balance sheet overall but doesn’t make the grain more available from Australia for the next six-nine months,” a second source said.

The marketing year is usually due to close in September, but even though the new season starts in October, new volumes are not expected to reach silos until December.

In the 2021-22 marketing year, Australian wheat exports reached a record 27.5 million tonnes, with record monthly volumes of 2.8 million tonnes reported for wheat and 4.2 million tonnes for all agricultural products, meaning that the country’s overall maximum port capacity is closer to 50 million tonnes per year.

For several years, industry participants have been considering investments into the logistics chain that could help the flow of wheat both inside and outside the country, as this year revealed the railway system’s sensitivity to weather, particularly excessive rain.

Sources say that the Australian government instead has so far shown little interest in investing.

“Our rail network is old and needs investment, but in the modern era more freight moved by road and rail infrastructure has been neglected,” the first source said.

“We don’t really have the volume to support bigger investments and the current scenario road freight is much more expensive versus rail,” the source added.

Logistics chain problems continue amid fears of drought despite Australia’s significant production increase over the last few years, with hopes from the industry that if export margins remain strong, more state investments could follow.

Meanwhile, private investors have been trying to improve the situation, with CBH Group – Australia’s biggest local operator – adding loading capacity in Western ports with plans to also invest around $4 billion for the next ten years in the co-operative’s network grain receiving, storage, and out loading infrastructure and assets, taking monthly export capacity to 3 million tonnes by 2033 or sooner.

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Initially, after the agreement to extend the corridor deal was confirmed on November 17, sources reported still relatively high freight prices, but as the delays cleared, price levels started to soften.

That comes as the grain market trade remained slow. A catalog of issues continues to cloud outlooks and complicate trade, including the fact that many buyers are thought to be fully covered for nearby loading dates.

Freight rate levels for a panamax cargo of corn to China have now dropped to around $52-57 per tonne, down from a high of $80 per tonne circulated by traders just after the corridor was re-confirmed.

The shipping rate for a 50,000 tonnes cargo from Ukraine to Spain was said to be possible to fix at $30 per tonne compared to ideas heard at around $48-50 per tonne in late November.

But as the slow inspection pace at Istanbul continues to cause delays, traders have been forced to factor in additional costs for possible delays and demurrage, as only the first seven to ten days’ waits are usually included in freight costs.

Currently, delays are approaching up to three weeks for inbound vessels – ships arriving at Istanbul en route to Ukraine’s ports – with some reporting even longer delays.

Delays for outbound vessels laden with Ukrainian product are said to extend for another week.

“You still have to build in demurrage risk that inbound vessels could wait 20-40 days,” a trader said.

Trade sources also said that inspections were still slow for several reasons, mainly as a result of bad storms in the region, but there were also allegations that Russian authorities could move more quickly to complete inspections.

Under the JCC corridor agreement, joint inspections are undertaken by a team of Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish inspectors – with sources suggesting that the Russian side has not increased the number of teams available to undertake the inspections.

For now, there are around 70 inbound vessels that are still waiting for inspection.

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